South Sudan aims to restart exports of its heavy sweet Dar Blend crude grade within six-eight weeks as it works to repair a pipeline in war-torn Sudan, finance minister Awow Daniel Chuang told Argus.
Problems along the Petrodar pipeline since February have prevented around 100,000 b/d of South Sudan's Dar Blend from reaching Sudan's Bashayer terminal on the Red Sea for export.
This has seen South Sudan's crude production almost halve to around 80,000 b/d because of a lack of alternative outlets for the grade. But production of the country's medium sweet Nile Blend grade continues as it is transported to Bashayer through the separate Greater Nile oil pipeline.
Landlocked South Sudan is entirely reliant on Sudan to export its crude and depends on oil sales for more than 90pc of government revenues.
Chuang, a former oil minister, said work to repair the pipeline was progressing well despite logistical challenges, and that unless something unforeseen happened, flows "should resume" within six-eight weeks.
The pipeline has suffered from gelling issues — solidifying crude — leaks and pressure drops for months. One key issue has been a lack of diesel, which is typically used to heat the crude or dilute it to help it flow.
Repairs have been complicated by the civil war in Sudan, pitting the army against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The conflict passed the one-year mark on 15 April, with no end in sight.
While production and exports in both Sudan and South Sudan held up surprisingly well at the start of the conflict, problems have begun to pile up over the past few months. South Sudan is sending diesel to Sudan because of the closure of the 100,000 b/d Khartoum refinery, which has come under repeated fire.
Sudan typically produces around 50,000 b/d of mostly Nile Blend crude, but this is thought to have been impacted by the civil war. Argus assessed Sudan's crude output at 20,000 b/d in March.
South Sudan's crude production was trending at around 150,000 b/d before the pipeline outage. Argus assessed South Sudan's crude output at 80,000 b/d in March.
Crude exports from Sudan's Bashayer port averaged 130,000 b/d in 2023 and stood at 168,000 b/d in January, according to Kpler. But exports have only averaged about 65,000 b/d since February.
South Sudan's crude production stood at around 300,000 b/d in the first few months following its independence from Sudan in 2011. It has a short-term target to grow output to 230,000 b/d and 450,000 b/d in the longer term — something the country's leaders acknowledge will require political stability and a surge in foreign investment.
