Australia's 2024-25 wheat, barley exports to fall: USDA

Australia's wheat and barley exports for the 2024-25 marketing year are projected by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to fall because of reduced domestic stocks with increased export demand.

Australia's wheat production is forecast at 25.8mn t for March 2024 to February 2025, below the previous year's 26mn t, according to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report. Wheat yields are predicted at 2.15 t/hectrare (t/ha), 3pc below the previous 10-year average of 2.22 t/ha. This forecast is below recent past yield results, which peaked at 3.11 t/ha in 2022-23.

Barley production is forecast at 10.9mn t, similar to the previous year's 10.8mn t but based on increased planted area and a lower average yield, the report said.

Wheat exports are forecast at 17.5mn t, a 2.5mn t fall from the 2023-24 estimate of 20mn t.

Australia's barley exports are projected at 5mn t, 2mn t below 7mn t in 2023-24. A previous three years of high barley production has resulted in a stockbuild, which the USD FAS expects to be drawn down in 2023-24 because of firm export demand.

East Australia's New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland states have generally received average to above-average rainfall from the start of 2024, which has led to good soil moisture at the start of planting. But Western Australia and South Australia started the planting period with below-average soil moisture and have yet to receive enough rain to get the winter planting going in earnest, according to the report. The weather will influence decision-making regrading increased fallow area and changing the balance of the winter cropping programme. The extent of the change will depend on how much and when the rain falls.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 16 April declared an end to El Nino weather trend with its dryer than usual conditions that it first announced in September 2023. Conditions have returned to neutral, with BoM reporting that some climate models indicate a chance of a shift to the wetter than usual conditions of La Nina by July this year. But the majority of Australia had average to above-average rainfall despite an El Nino being declared.

By Jessica Clarke