G7 coal exit goal puts focus on Germany, Japan and US

A G7 countries commitment to phase out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 focuses attention on Germany, Japan and the US for charting a concrete coal-exit path, but provides some flexibility on timelines.

The G7 commitment does not mark a departure from the previous course and provides a caveat by stating the unabated coal exit will take place by 2035or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net-zero pathways". The G7 countries are Italy — this year's host — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member.

The announcement calls for accelerating "efforts towards the phase-out of unabated coal power generation", but does not suggest policy action. It calls for reducing "as much as possible", providing room for manoeuvre to Germany, Japan and the US. Coal exports are not mentioned in the communique. Canada and the US are net coal exporters.

France, which predominantly uses nuclear power in its generation mix is already scheduled to close its two remaining coal plants by the end of this year. The UK will shut its last coal-fired plant Ratcliffe in September.

Italy has ended its emergency "coal maximisation plan" and has been less reliant on coal-fired generation, except in Sardinia. The country has 6GW of installed coal-fired power capacity, with state-controlled utility Enel operating 4.7GW of this. The operator said it wanted to shut all its coal-fired plants by 2027.

Canada announced a coal exit by 2030 in 2016 and currently has 4.7GW of operational coal-fired capacity. In 2021-23, the country imported an average of 5.7mn t of coal each year, mainly from the US.

Germany

Germany has a legal obligation to shut down all its coal plants by 2038, but the country's nuclear fleet retirement in 2023, coupled with LNG shortages after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, led to an increase in coal use.

Germany pushed for an informal target to phase out coal by 2030, but the grid regulator Bnetza's timeline still anticipates the last units going offline in 2038.

The G7 agreement puts into questions how the country will treat its current reliance on coal as a backup fuel. The grid regulator requires "systematically relevant" coal plants to remain available as emergency power sources until the end of March 2031.

Germany generated 9.5TWh of electricity from hard-coal fired generation so far this year, according to European grid operator association Entso-E. Extending the current rate of generation, Germany's theoretical coal burn could reach about 8.8mn t.

Japan

Japan's operational coal capacity has increased since 2022, with over 3GW of new units connected to the grid, according to the latest analysis by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

Less than 5pc of Japan's operational coal fleet has a planned retirement year, and these comprise the oldest and least efficient plants. Coal capacity built in the last decade, following the Fukushima disaster, is unlikely to receive a retirement date without a country-wide policy that calls for a coal exit.

Returning nuclear fleet capacity is curtailing any additional coal-fired generation in Japan, but it will have to build equivalent capacity to replace its 53GW of coal generation. And, according to IEA figures, Japan will only boost renewables up to 24pc until 2030.

The US

The US operates the third-largest coal-power generation fleet in the world, with 212GW operational capacity.

Only 37pc of this capacity has a known retirement date before 2031. After 2031, the US will have to retire coal-fired capacity at a rate of 33GW/yr for four years to be able to meet the 2035 phase-out deadline.

By Ashima Sharma