Southeast Asian steel demand to rise in 2024: Seaisi

The Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (Seaisi) estimates that southeast Asian countries' steel demand will grow by 3.7pc from 2023 to 76.5mn t in 2024.

But the growth rate fell below previous expectations considering high global inflation risks, volatile prices and a demand slowdown in China and many other regions, the institute said at the 2024 Seaisi conference in Vietnam held over 13-16 May.

Steel demand in the six major countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean-6) fell by 1.9pc from 2022 to 73.5mn t in 2023, Seaisi said. Asean-6's steel production also dropped by 2.1pc on the year to 49.4mn t in 2023, in line with contracting demand. Asean-6's net imports slid by 1.3pc on the year to 24.3mn t in 2023.

Lower external demand, high inflation and interest rates as well as tightening global financial markets were the main reasons for steel industrial setbacks last year. It led to a slowdown in construction sectors and steel industrial destocking activities in the region. Steel demand in Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam fell by 14pc, 7.5pc and 4.8pc respectively in 2023, weighing on regional industrial performance although demand rose by 18pc in Singapore and 6.3pc in Indonesia, Seaisi said. Thailand's steel demand edged down by 0.1pc in 2023.

Asean regional steel demand was expected to increase in 2024 because Asean-6 governments were optimistic about achieving their economic growth targets, given strong private consumption in most countries, the rolling out of infrastructure and construction projects, a recovery in tourism and electronics, and as inflation rates move towards targeted ranges. But the region will continue to experience challenges from supply chain uncertainties on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions and wars, weakening Asean currencies except for the Singapore dollar, economic slowdowns outside of Asean, volatile commodity prices, and extreme weather, Seaisi said.

Seaisi did not provide a forecast for regional steel production in 2024, but it sees steel capacity expansions in the region leading to overcapacity issues. It expects Asean-6 crude steel capacity to rise from 78mn t/yr in 2022 to 94mn t/yr in 2024.