Opec keeps demand, supply forecasts unchanged again

Opec has again kept its global oil supply and demand forecasts unchanged for this year and 2025.

The group still expects demand to rise by 2.25mn b/d to 104.46mn b/d in 2024 and by a further 1.85mn b/d to 106.31mn b/d next year, according to its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).

For this year's forecast, downward adjustments to demand in OECD countries, Latin America and Africa in the first and second quarters were offset by better-than-expected consumption in China, the Middle East and India.

Demand in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, contracted in March on the back of lower diesel consumption as a result of a milder winter. A decrease in diesel consumption also weighed on demand in OECD Europe.

In OECD countries, "diesel requirements are anticipated to be subdued by softer economic and manufacturing activity. Moreover, demand for naphtha may be pressured by declining petrochemical margins", Opec said.

For non-OECD countries, Opec expects China, the world's largest oil importer and second-largest oil consumer, to be the main driver of oil demand growth this year, supported by rising jet fuel and gasoline consumption and new petrochemical capacity additions.

Opec expects supply from non-Opec+ countries to grow by 1.23mn b/d to 52.96mn b/d in 2024 and by another 1.1mn b/d to 54.06mn b/d in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast.

The group expects the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway to drive non-Opec+ supply growth in both years. For 2025, "the main decline is expected in Angola", Opec said.

The unchanged supply and demand projections leave the call on Opec+ crude at 43.2mn b/d this year, rising to 44mn b/d in 2025. Opec+ production remained steady at 41mn b/d in May, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus.

By Caroline Varin