Canadian wheat exports squeeze supply in 2024-25

Canadian wheat supply for the 2024-25 marketing year ending 31 July 2025 could tighten as as result of higher expected exports and domestic use, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC).

Canada's 2024-25 wheat production, including durum, remains pegged at 34.59mn t, but upward revisions to exports in the current and forthcoming marketing years, combined with higher domestic use of wheat and stable production, are weighing on Canada's expected wheat stocks.

AAFC's revised forecast for beginning stocks of wheat, excluding durum, for 2024-25 stands at 2.35mn t — which would be the lowest on record — because of a projected 150,000t increase in exports in the 2023-24 marketing year.

Similarly, AAFC has increased its 2024-25 wheat export projection by 250,000t to 20.5mn t because of stronger global demand for higher-quality and protein-grade wheat. Domestic use is also expected to increase, by 125,000t from AAFC's May outlook.

The 400,000t increase in expected exports across 2023-24 and 2024-25 has not been matched by an increase in production.

AAFC's wheat output forecast of 28.93mn t for 2024-25 was unchanged from May, contributing to an 18pc reduction in estimated closing stocks to 2.45mn t for 2024-25.

The 2024-25 durum wheat balance sheet was mostly unchanged from the May forecasts, but closing stocks are projected to be 7pc lower, as a 100,000t downgrade to carry in from 2023-24 was only partially offset by a 50,000t contraction in domestic use. Production and exports were pegged at 5.66mn t and 4.5mn t, respectively.

The canola balance sheet remained unchanged from AAFC's May estimates. Production forecasts for 2023-24 and 2024-25 were held at 18.33mn t and 18.1mn t, respectively.

AAFC revised Canada's 2023-24 dry peas import forecast up by 20,000t to 100,000t, with the extra supply earmarked for domestic use, which rose in line to 481,000t. The 2024-25 dry peas balance sheet was unchanged on the month.

By Edward Dunlop