Neutral outlook supports Australia’s NSW winter crops

Australian forecasts predicting New South Wales' (NSW) 2024-25 winter crop production to be the fifth largest since records began in 1989-90 are being supported by recent rainfall and a continuing neutral winter outlook.

NSW's winter crop in 2024-25 (June-July) is forecast to increase by 36pc from 2023-24 to 15.02mn t, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (Abares). It projects wheat yields in 2024-25 to rise by 27pc from 2023-24 to 2.72 t/hectare with favourable soil moisture levels and a neutral winter rainfall outlook that did not predict below average rainfall in most of NSW's cropping regions.

Rainfall in June and the continuation of a three-month neutral rainfall outlook lends support to the above average yield projections. The chance of exceeding median rainfall in state's northern cropping regions is about 50pc, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) July-September rainfall forecast issued on 20 June. The BoM did not change its El Nino–Southern Oscillation (Enso) outlook from a La Nina Watch on 25 June, indicating a La Nina or neutral Enso weather event is equally likely to develop later in 2024.

The south of NSW could be an exception with its drier weather and in the southerly state of Victoria, leading to a more challenging cropping environment. May rainfall deciles in western Victoria were below and very much below average.

The upcoming NSW harvest is unlikely to exert abnormal pressure on logistics and grain storage networks. GrainCorp, the largest bulk handler on the east coast, received approximately 16mn t of grain when NSW winter crop output peaked at 20.33mn t in the 2020-21 season.

GrainCorp has a storage capacity exceeding 20mn t, which can accommodate almost 75pc of the combined winter crop of Queensland, NSW and Victoria calculated at Abares' 2024-25 output projections. It is too early in the season for GrainCorp to determine if it will need to significantly increase its casual workforce, which can reach up to 3,000 staff for some harvests.

By Edward Dunlop

NSW rainfall 1-25 June (mm)