Mexico economy showing 'timid growth': IMEF

Indicators of Mexico's non-manufacturing and manufacturing sectors suggested the economy recovered "some dynamism" in June, while maintaining the slow pace of growth of the second quarter, according to domestic financial association IMEF.

"The trend suggested by the IMEF indicators suggest a moderate growth for the second quarter of the year," IMEF said. "The economy finds itself in an evident pause compared with the solid dynamism observed during 2022 and a large part of 2023." Manufacturing "stagnated" in the second quarter, it said.

"It is very probable that economic activity will undergo additional slowdown in the second half of the year that will extend into 2025."

IMEF's June manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased by 0.4 points to 49.5 points, still beneath the 50-point breakeven that shows contraction. This has been the third consecutive month of contraction. PMI adjusted to compensate for variations in company size was more positive, growing by 0.8 points to 51.2 in June, the group said. Manufacturing accounts for about a fifth of the Mexican economy.

The non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the lion's share of the economy, rose by 0.6 points to 51 in June, marking a 29th month of expansion, IMEF said. Adjusted for company size, the headline services PMI rose by 0.9 to 5.18.

Economic activity in Mexico continues to surprise downwards. After growth came in at an annual 1.6pc in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first data for April showed a monthly contraction of 0.6pc, IMEF said.

Headwinds and tailwinds

IMEF representatives highlighted growing market uncertainty following the Mexican election and ahead of the US presidential election in November.

On the upside, said IMEF, Mexico should benefit from continued strength in the US economy, adding the incoming administration looks to bring down the current fiscal deficit, which is equal to 5.9pc of GDP. For which, it will not reach the government's 3pc target for the budget coming out in November, but progress is expected with next year's budget and moving forward.

By James Young