Opec+ crude production falls in June

Opec+ crude output by members subject to cuts fell for a third straight month in June, as lower Russian production offset rises from some serial overproducers.

Output fell by 90,000 b/d to 33.98mn b/d in June, according to Argus estimates, the lowest in three years. But it could have been lower, with the alliance overshooting its target for the month by 130,000 b/d (see table).

Lower Opec+ production has played a key role in tightening oil markets in recent weeks. The $7-8/bl rise in oil prices over the past month will have come as a relief to Opec+, which initially saw prices slide after key members signalled their intention to start unwinding some of their production cuts from October.

The nine Opec members subject to cuts were 150,000 b/d above target in June, but this was partially offset by the nine non-Opec members of the group, which produced 20,000 b/d below.

Leading non-Opec producer Russia has driven much of the alliance's output falls in the past three months, as a pre-existing export cut pledge was replaced with an output reduction. And while it reduced production by 120,000 b/d to 9.14mn b/d last month, this was still well above its target of 8.98mn b/d. Much steeper falls could be on the horizon from Russia if it makes good on a promise to compensate for producing above target in recent months.

Kazakhstan was another big overproducer last month, with its output rising by 80,000 b/d to 1.56mn b/d — 90,000 b/d above target. Despite outlining a plan to drive down output and compensate for overproducing this year, Kazakhstan has not met its target in any of the first six months of 2024. But lower production is on the horizon, with Kazakhstan undertaking maintenance at key fields later in the year — probably in August and October, according to its initial compensation plan.

Iraq was again the alliance's largest overproducer last month, with output rising by 40,000 b/d to 4.2mn b/d — around 200,000 b/d above target. Like Kazakhstan, Iraq has failed to meet its target in any month this year, despite also outlining a plan to compensate for producing above quota. Rising summer temperatures boosted crude burn for power generation last month, but most of its overproduction is down to Baghdad's unwillingness to acknowledge surging production from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Iraq and Kazakhstan's combined overproduction has averaged 290,000 b/d this year, making their task of compensating much harder in the coming months.

Disruption and decline

In contrast, an emerging number of Opec+ members have been unable to hit their production targets in recent months. Grappling with natural decline and upstream challenges, Azerbaijan produced 80,000 b/d below its target of 550,000 b/d in the first six months. Malaysia also underproduced, by an average of 40,000 b/d in the same period. War-torn Sudan's production has fallen to just 20,000 b/d from pre-conflict levels of around 70,000 b/d. And South Sudan, which is entirely reliant on Sudan for its exports, has seen its production more than halve owing to the continued shutdown of a key pipeline in Sudan.

Production was relatively uneventful in the Mideast Gulf Opec+ contingent. Saudi Arabia's output fell by 10,000 b/d to 8.95mn b/d, the UAE shed 10,000 b/d to 2.94mn b/d and Kuwait dropped by 20,000 b/d to 2.4mn b/d.

Production from the three members exempt from production targets edged up in June. Sanctions-hit Iran continued its upward trajectory, adding 20,000 b/d to 3.31mn b/d — the highest since September 2018. Libya added 40,000 b/d to reach 1.22mn b/d on recent upstream work and Venezuela edged higher by 20,000 b/d despite the return of US sanctions in April.

By Aydin Calik