Iraq's Opec+ compliance challenges are not going away

Iraq's crude production fell in June but not by enough to stave off heat from the Opec+ alliance.

State-owned marketing firm Somo said output dropped by 26,000 b/d on the month to 3.83mn b/d, excluding that from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. Production levels in the northern region are unclear, but are probably enough to take the overall country output to above the 4mn b/d limit imposed by the Opec+ agreement.

Iraq has failed to meet this target in any month this year, and as the Opec+ alliance's least compliant member it agreed in May to make additional cuts to compensate for prior overproduction. The Opec+ secondary sources, which include Argus, put Iraq's output at 4.19mn b/d in June.

Iraq's oil ministry on 14 July reiterated its commitment to meeting the 4mn b/d limit and reaffirmed its willingness to compensate for the excess production since the beginning of the year.

Baghdad's mission is made more difficult by a lack of visibility in Kurdistan, where 400,000 of crude exports were taken off international markets in March 2023. Argus estimates output from the region at between 250,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, much of which ends up in Turkey or Iran, but the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has stopped providing any oil-sector data.

Baghdad says a drop in its crude exports is evidence of attempts to improve compliance — shipments from the southern Basrah oil terminal averaged 3.29mn b/d in June, down from 3.36mn b/d in May and 3.41mn b/d in April, according to Somo. Kpler data put Iraq's crude exports at 3.24mn b/d in June, the lowest since the beginning of the year.

Somo said the amount of crude supplied to domestic refineries increased to 475,000 b/d in June from 441,000 b/d in May and 421,000 b/d in April. It said 10,000 b/d were exported to Jordan.

By Bachar Halabi