Indian DAP stocks fall by 430,000t in June

A major lack of DAP imports into India has caused stocks to fall by over 400,000t in June, according to Fertilizer Association of India (FAI) data, with Argus estimating stocks are currently at 2mn t.

Imports have slowed considerably because of the current maximum retail price and subsidy in India, which effectively makes importing above $500/t cfr uneconomic. But global prices are way above this level. Chinese fob prices at $580/t imply landed costs close to $600/t cfr India, while neighbouring Pakistan has paid above this level over the last few days.

Reports emerging from India on 18 July suggested that the government was mulling a special subsidy on DAP of 3,000-3,500 rupees/t ($36-42/t) to plug some of the shortfall.

India produced 343,600t of DAP in June, imported 273,000t and sold 1.05mn t. Stock draw/build, equivalent to production plus imports minus consumption, was thus at -430,000t.

Cumulative production fell by 15pc on the year to 1mn t for April-June for the kharif season so far, with imports down by 48pc at 1.12mn t, and sales also falling by 11pc to 1.93mn t.

Imports are at around 376,000t, comprising tonnage from Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and Morocco, show Argus line-up data for July so far. This would bring imports for kharif so far to nearly 1.5mn t for April-July, compared to 2.7mn t in the same period of 2023.

By Mike Nash