Vietnam’s 1H 2024 coal imports hit all-time high

Vietnam's coal imports reached an all-time high in the first half of this year despite an on-year drop in seaborne receipts in June from a relatively high base last year.

A growth in seaborne receipts led by strong utility demand took Vietnam's coal imports to 33.43mn t in January-June, up from 24.1mn t in the same period last year, according to customs data. Vietnamese customs data do not differentiate between coking and thermal coal. The imports in the first half of this year hit the highest level since Vietnam imported 30.61mn t in January-June 2020, according to Argus' analysis of the customs data.

Imports were at 6.36mn t in June, down from a revised 7.21mn t a year earlier and 6.5mn t in May. This was the first year-on-year drop in imports since January last year.

Vietnam's strong imports in the first half of the year comes amid heatwaves in the region, which has boosted power consumption and coal-burn at utilities. Vietnam is leading the growth in imports in the southeast Asian region, a trend that is helping to partly offset a lukewarm demand trend in China — the biggest coal importer in the world. Vietnam could end up importing over 66mn t of coal this year at the current average rate of 5.57mn t/month, according to Argus calculations. This could be the country's highest annual imports since the 55mn t of coal it received in 2020, and up from 51.16mn t in 2023.

The on-year dip in imports in June came from a high base a year earlier when strong demand from utilities took the monthly imports to a record high. The dip also came as the coal-fired generation dropped to 12.37TWh in June from 17.08TWh in May this year, while the hydro-power generation more than doubled to 9.55TWh last month on a month-on-month basis, according to Argus calculations based on the data from state-owned utility EVN.

The country's coal-fired generation, which accounted for 57pc of overall generation in January-June, could come under pressure on a steady uptick in hydropower output, owing to heavy rains in some parts of the country. Overall generation rose by about 12pc on the year to 151.7TWH in the first half of the year, while coal-fired generation reached 86.34TWh, up from 66.76TWh a year earlier, EVN data show. Hydropower generation was at 28.63TWh during the period, down from 29.83TWh a year earlier, according to the EVN data. Vietnam's northern regions may face heavy rains until 24 July as typhoon Prapiroon heads towards Vietnam after making a landfall in south China's Hainan, according to the country's National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting.

Coal-fired generation rose to cater for higher electricity consumption resulting from continued economic recovery and an uptick in air-conditioning demand. Power demand continues to grow, and the peak capacity of the national power system reached 49.53GW on 19 June, up from 45.53GW a year earlier, it said. Peak capacity might increase further to over 52GW this month, it added. Authorities have directed EVN and state-owned coal producers to ensure stable supplies to meet the increased power consumption.

The uptick in power consumption and coal demand during the first six months and during the second quarter of the year was also supported by an increase in economic activity. Vietnam's GDP grew by 6.93pc in April-June from a year earlier.

The increase in receipts of seaborne coal also followed softness in international coal prices, especially for coal from Vietnam's preferred origins — Indonesia and Australia. Argus assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $52.38/t fob Kalimantan on 19 July, with the price of the grade recovering from a 10-month low of $52.07/t on 12 July. Argus assessed the Australian NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal market at $87.61/t fob Newcastle on 19 July, down from $96.59/t fob Newcastle on 1 March — the highest value for the grade in the year to date.

Power saving

EVN has advised local authorities, businesses, commercial and residential consumers to ensure economical and efficient use of electricity.

It has asked commercial units and households to reduce consumption, and advised them to not set air-conditioner temperatures below 26-27°C.

Vietnamese authorities have asked power consumers to pay special attention to electricity usage during peak hours between 11:00am to 3:00pm local time (04:00-08:00 GMT) and 7:00pm to 11:00pm.

By Saurabh Chaturvedi

Vietnam's coal imports (mn t)

Vietnam's Jan-June generation mix (TWh)