EU could launch 'other countries' HRC dumping probe

The European Commission soon could initiate a dumping investigation on some exporters selling into the 'other countries' quota for hot-rolled coil (HRC), according to multiple market sources.

The 'other countries' quota in recent quarters has consistently filled rapidly upon resetting, and this pressure has been intensified by rising Chinese exports since August of last year. Some key 'other countries' sellers have seen the volumes they take from China balloon as a result. Vietnam bought more than 4.2mn t from China in the first six months of this year, compared with about 6mn t in the whole of 2023.

China's increased exports has sparked talk that both India and Vietnam may start anti-dumping duty investigations.

When announcing its 15pc cap on countries selling into the 'other countries' quota, the commission specifically alluded to the increase in Chinese exports affecting trade flows. Vietnam, Egypt, Japan and Taiwan are by far the largest sellers into the 'other countries' quota, and all of the countries initially exceeded their 141,849t cap quickly when the new quotas took force on 1 July. In April, before the cap was implemented, these four countries amounted for more than half of the 1.4mn t imported by the EU.

The 'other countries' quota has essentially been reduced from 940,000 t/quarter to less than 600,000 t/quarter given the new cap.

Sources suggested duties could be applied retroactively if the commission finds that material has been dumped. They also suggested it could be difficult to show dumping in some countries, such as Vietnam and Egypt, where domestic prices are often below export levels. A leading producer was gathering information on Egyptian cargoes arriving at EU ports in recent months, a trading firm said.

The commission refused to comment on any potential investigation.

By Colin Richardson