Argus expects France to record its smallest wheat harvest in 41 years after near-continuous rain from planting right through until harvest proved detrimental to yields.
Argus projects yields in France's 2024 wheat crop at 5.933 t/hectare (ha), down by 18.7pc on average yields in the past five years.
Together with areas at 4.243mn ha, this would put this year's French wheat production at 25.17mn t. The figure is nearly 10mn t below last year's crop and represents a 27.2pc drop on the past five-year average.
Argus collected feedback from farmers, grain trading firms and co-operatives across France during the week of 1-5 August.
Market participants on the whole said their yields fell by 15-25pc compared with their previous averages. Only producers in the southernmost parts of France reported less of a drop.
Wet weather set the season off to a poor start at the time of planting. And the outlook for French wheat then took a further hit from crop disease, low temperatures and a lack of sunlight hours.
Unfavourable weather has also weighed on the quality of French wheat. Key measures of quality, in particular the test weight of the crop, vary highly from region to region this year.
Grain processors will be able to assure there is wheat available to meet the standards of domestic and international buyers, despite a high volume of feed grade in this year's crop. But both French producers and exporters have already slowed sales activity at the start of the 2024-25 marketing year in response to signs of a poor crop.
Argus' output forecast puts this year's crop even smaller than in 2016, when France had its smallest harvest so far this century. In 2016, larger planted areas partially offset a drop in yields to 5.374 t/ha thanks to a generally favourable start of the season, before the weather turned less beneficial to wheat crops in spring.
