Rainfall supports Australia’s 2024-25 crop prospects

Most of Australia's cropping regions have received between 15-50mm of rainfall in the week ending 19 August but more will be needed to support production outlooks in Western Australia (WA) and South Australia (SA).

Although the rainfall lends further support to the exceptional crop prospects of New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland it was more welcome in WA and SA, which have experienced low soil moisture levels during planting and an unusually late start to the growing season. Victoria received a smaller share of last week's rainfall event and will need further rainfall to support soil moisture levels and yield prospects, according to market participants.

The outcomes of WA and SA are dependent on future favourable rainfall. The Grains Industry Association of Western Australia (Giwa) said the state's potential grain output of between 17mn-18mn t is partially dependent on median rainfall for the remainder of August–September. In SA, where 2024-25 grain output is estimated at 7.7mn t and approximately 16pc below the five-year average, achieving near average yields will be dependent on spring (September-November) rainfall, according to the Department of Primary Industries and Regions.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service's latest report expects NSW to achieve well above average wheat and barley yields, while SA and Victoria could achieve around average or

slightly above wheat and barley yields partly because of favourable rainfall outlook for August–October. WA is anticipated to achieve below average yields, which is at odds with the latest Giwa production estimates.

But the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) current three-month rainfall forecast does not support higher rainfall levels in almost all Australia's eastern and southern cropping regions, predicting a 50pc chance, or worse, of exceeding median rainfall during September–November.

This could weigh on current production projection. The USDA forecast Australia's wheat and barley production at 30mn t and 11.5mn t respectively for the 2024-25 (October-September) marketing year.

By Edward Dunlop

Australia rainfall for week ended 19 August (mm)

BoM September-November outlook (%)