Poor wheat crop to slash French exports

French wheat exports outside the EU could fall to their lowest in two decades in 2024-25, based on Argus' forecast of a 25.17mn t harvest.

France may have just 4.1mn t of wheat — excluding durum — available for export to non-EU countries in 2024-25 (July-June), Argus said. French exports to other countries in the EU are projected at 6.3mn t.

This would cut French wheat exports outside the bloc to their lowest since 2001-02. France on average exported 10mn t to non-EU countries over the past five marketing years. Major importers of French wheat in the 2023-24 marketing year included Morocco, which took 2.7mn t, and China and sub-Saharan Africa, which each took 2.4mn t.

The drop in exports is the result of a catastrophic season for French wheat production, with Argus expecting France to record its smallest wheat harvest in 41 years. Argus earlier this month pegged France's wheat crop at 25.17mn t, based on feedback from farmers, grain trading firms and co-operatives across France collected between 1-5 August. Near-continuous rain from planting until harvest devastated both planted areas and yields.

Crop quality issue

Unfavourable weather has also affected the quality of French wheat. Key measures of quality, in particular the test weight of the crop, vary highly from region to region this year.

Both French producers and exporters have already slowed sales activity at the start of the 2024-25 marketing year in response to signs of a poor crop. Exporters buying wheat on the local cpt market have mostly had to buy at basis to Euronext futures, well above fob prices in the international market, Argus assessed prices show.

Argus also highlighted the impact of a poor crop on France's domestic sector. Producers risk selling at negative margins for all three key crops — wheat, feed barley and rapeseed — harvested in 2024. For wheat, this would mean the crop has been loss-making for the eighth time in the past 20 years.

France is historically the largest wheat producer and exporter in the EU. It is not the only country in Europe to harvest a smaller crop this year, with Germany and the UK also hard hit by wet weather.

Global picture

Argus expects total wheat production in the EU and UK at 135mn t this year, the lowest since 2012. This implies exports outside of the bloc and UK at 29.5mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year, compared with an average 35.4mn t/yr over the past five years.

The EU as a bloc is one of the world's top eight wheat exporters. Any loss in market share is set to go to Russia, Ukraine, the US and Canada, with the US expecting its largest wheat crop in eight years. Key exporters Australia and Argentina in the southern hemisphere are also projected to have relatively high supply for 2024-25 once harvesting begins later this year.

That said, the balance between global supply and demand remains tight for 2024-25. Argus projects combined export supply from the world's top eight exporters at a three-year low. And while the start of the marketing year has been characterised by falling prices as northern hemisphere exporters compete for slow demand, the situation could change rapidly if buyers in north Africa, China and potentially India return en masse.

By Maxence Devillers and Claudia Jackson

French common wheat exports to non-EU countries (mn t)

French common wheat production (mn t)