Southeast Asia could have the capability to supply around 12pc of global demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2050, according to a report by not-for-profit association the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB).
This would be equivalent to 45.7mn t out of an estimated 380mn t, based on the Air Transport Action Group's forecast for how much SAF will be needed to meet net-zero targets in 2050.
The RSB expects rice husks and straw to provide 36.9pc of feedstocks for SAF production in southeast Asia, followed by palm oil residues at 11.8pc. Around three-quarters of potential SAF feedstock can be sourced from post-consumer and agricultural waste, including cassava (9.3pc), sugarcane bagasse (6.4pc) and municipal solid waste (8.6pc), the RSB said.
The report expects Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines together to account for about 90pc of the region's SAF supply in 2050. All five, except Vietnam, participate in CORSIA, a scheme that obligates members to buy SAF or buy offset credits to offset their emissions.
The RSB assessed feedstocks on availability and sustainability, using 12 social and environmental criteria including the region's "significant risk" of deforestation and water stress.
SAF accounted for just 0.2pc of global commercial aviation fuel use in 2023, but demand is poised to rise sharply on the back of upcoming blending mandates worldwide, particularly the EU's ReFuelEU mandate under which fuel suppliers will need to blend at least 2pc SAF in their jet fuel deliveries next year.
Some 43 international airlines are committed to using 13mn t/yr of SAF by 2030 to meet their regulatory and voluntary targets, and demand for SAF from the corporate sector has increased through book and claim approaches. Unblended SAF, which is completely free of fossil fuels, could reduce the aviation sector's emissions by 84pc over the fuel's lifecycle, according to the RSB.
Policies aligning
Regional policies in southeast Asia are beginning to reflect global trends, with several countries adopting or exploring SAF mandates, said RSB.
Indonesia and Malaysia, with their established biofuel industries, have "laid the groundwork" for SAF production, "leveraging their abundant agricultural resources" such as palm oil, while Thailand and the Philippines have initiated policy frameworks and pilot projects to explore SAF potential, although commercial production is "still nascent", the report said.
Singapore "stands out" with its comprehensive approach to SAF, the RSB said. The report highlights Singapore's National Sustainable Air Hub Blueprint launched in February 2024, which outlines a strategy to achieve net zero domestic and international aviation emissions by 2050. The blueprint also includes the introduction of a SAF levy for flights departing from Singapore in 2026.
