US inflation slowed in August to the lowest rate since February 2021, marking a fifth month of easing inflationary pressures and paving the way for a widely expected cut in the Federal Reserve's target rate next week.
The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 2.5pc in August from 2.9pc in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.2pc in August, matching the July reading, largely due to an uptick in monthly shelter costs.
After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled an 83pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate by a quarter point at next week's Fed policy meeting from 66pc odds Tuesday. Probabilities of a half point cut fell to 17pc from 34pc the prior day.
The energy index contracted by an annual 4pc in August, following a 1.1pc gain in July, while the gasoline index contracted by 10.3pc in August, accelerating from a 2.2pc decline in July. Energy services eased to an annual gain of 3.1pc following gains of 4.2pc in July.
Food costs rose by 2.1pc in August, slowing from a 2.2pc gain in July. Shelter rose by 5.2pc after a 5.1pc gain in July. Transportation services rose by 7.9pc in August, slowing from 8.8pc in July.
Headline CPI rose by 0.2pc in August from the prior month, matching July's monthly gain. Core CPI accelerated a tick to 0.3pc in August following a monthly 0.2pc gain in July, largely as shelter rose to 0.5pc from a prior 0.4pc and transportation services surged to a 0.9pc monthly gain from 0.4pc.
After falling to 3.1pc in January, inflation reaccelerated to as high as 3.5pc in March, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold off on widely expected rate cuts after holding its target rate at 23-year highs since July 2023 to contain inflation, which surged as high as 9.1pc in June 2022.
By Bob Willis
