China to develop 1.28bn t/yr of coal capacity: GEM

China's coal output capacity could rise by up to 1.28bn t/yr based on the number of mines under development in the country, a report from US-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM) says.

Capacity of 450mn t/yr is already under construction, and this is expected to lead to a surge in Chinese coal production in three to five years.

Proposed Chinese mining capacity stands at 1.16bn t/yr, primarily made up of projects designed to produce at least 1mn t/yr, data from GEM's Global Coal Mine Tracker show. When combined with previously proposed projects and a lower capacity threshold of 600,000 t/yr, this totals 1.28bn t/yr of capacity under development in 14 Chinese provinces.

The country's development pipeline accounts for almost half the proposed coal capacity globally, and more than double India's planned capacity for large-scale coal mines, which GEM classifies as being of 1mn t/yr or higher.

And almost 80pc of China's proposed mines are greenfield developments, indicating a strong industry push to establish new operations, and implying that China's growing dependency on coal is unlikely to slow.

China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, produced a record 4.66bn t last year, figures from the country's statistics bureau show. This accounted for over half last year's global coal production of 8.97bn t, also a record, according to GEM data.

Large-scale coal mines make up a significant majority of China's coal production, with around 3.88bn t/yr of its operational capacity coming from these mines. This is equivalent to nearly half the global total from similar large-scale mines, and is almost double the combined output from India, Indonesia, and Australia — the world's next three biggest coal producers.

New mines threaten China's climate goals

GEM says China's push to increase coal production "starkly contrasts" with the country's carbon neutrality targets, adding credence to the IEA's recent claim that coal market developments, particularly in India and China, are at odds with climate pledges made at UN summits.

Increased methane emissions from these new mines — coupled with abandoned coal mine methane from the accelerating closure of small-scale operations — pose significant risks to China's climate objectives of having emissions peak before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, as committed to under the Paris climate agreement, according to GEM.

Although short-lived in the atmosphere, methane is more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and has driven about a third of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution.

China's existing mines emit 52.73bn m³/yr of methane, accounting for 70pc of global coal mine methane emissions from large mines. If all of its proposed projects are completed, and without robust mitigation, GEM estimates that this figure will rise to 75pc.

Although China's national climate plan has not been renewed since 2021, the government is expected to heighten its ambitions in a new plan by the start of 2025. The country has admitted that its heavy dependence on coal is straining its environmental goals.

But the country's huge nuclear fleet and significant renewables additions have been unable to erode demand for coal-fired generation. Although solar and hydropower output rose in the first half of 2024, China's coal-fired generation also increased by 1.5pc on the year to 3,000TWh, Argus data show.

By Bryan Wu