Argentina's big energy hopes face reality

Argentina has the reserves, investor interest and now most of the regulatory framework to potentially triple its oil and natural gas output by the early 2030s, but ensuring success will require much more, producers in the country said today.

"Argentina has tremendous production potential," said Chevron's general manager of its Argentina upstream unit Jim Navratil, speaking at the 4th Shale in Argentina conference in Houston, Texas. But the country needs to give more assurances that contracts and investment regimes will be honored, and make it easier to move capital, he added. Chevron produces more than 100,000 b/d in Argentina.

The South American country is banking mostly on its Vaca Muerta unconventional oil and gas deposit that holds an estimated 308 trillion cf in natural gas and 16bn bl of oil reserves. Output from Vaca Muerta alone could rise to more than 1mn b/d from about 390,000 b/d now by 2030, the government and outside forecasts estimate. This comes after Argentina's overall oil output hit a 20-year high in July of 682,000 b/d and 151.7mn m³/d of gas, a 21-year high.

To further that increase, Argentina's government under President Javier Milei has passed massive changes to its financial and energy regulatory framework. The changes are aimed at ending the costly policy of energy sovereignty that "has hurt us" and instead making the system financially self-sustaining and open for investment, Argentina's energy minister Eduardo Rodriguez Chirillo said at the same event.

Not quite there

Optimism has grown, but more work is pending, producers say.

"We are supporting [the government's changes] and cheering, but we are still not quite there yet", Equinor's Vaca Muerta asset manager Max Medina said. Equinor has interest in one exploration license and one producing block in Vaca Muerta, with about 59,000 b/d of production.

Argentina should add more incentives for producers and those companies must place more attention on safety, emissions reductions and compliance as the basin expands, Medina said. Workforce development is also a challenge in Neuquen, the province where Vaca Muerta is centered, which has a population of about 700,000.

"The challenge to get to 1mn b/d [in Vaca Muerta] is going to be much more difficult, especially on the human resources side," Medina said.

Technological and cost constraints also present difficulties, said Pan American Energy's upstream managing director Fausto Caretta. The company hopes to triple its oil production in the Neuquina basin asset and in the Neuquen province in coming years, from 6,000 b/d of oil now.

But restrictions in Argentina on importing needed technology have also delayed needed improvements, Caretta said, although rules are easing. This has contributed to well drilling costs in the Vaca Muerta region being about 20pc higher than in the Permian basin in Texas, to which it is often compared, and completion times remain about 30pc more.

Financing multiple proposed infrastructure projects will also be key.

"The challenge is how to get that oil to markets," said Julian Escuder, country manager for Pluspetrol, which produces about 21,000 b/d of oil in Argentina. "We need infrastructure."

Despite the hurdles, Argentinian officials are assuring investors that changes are here to stay, unlike recent abrupt shifts in energy policy in Colombia and Mexico to focus on state-centered models.

Neuquen governor Roland Figuero assured attendees that energy policy is stable in his province. "That has been the same for years," he said, adding that Vaca Muerta "is the last big opportunity that Argentinians have to do things well" in energy.

By Carla Bass