India’s energy transition hinges on power sector

India's rapid economic growth has led to surging power demand, which the country aims to meet through expanded renewable energy capacity. But for now, coal remains firmly in its energy mix.

Indian GDP grew by 6.7pc last year, according to energy watchdog the IEA, with emissions growing at a slightly faster 7pc, or about 190mn t, to 2.8 gigatonnes of CO2. Accelerating the transition to cleaner power generation is imperative for the country to meet its development and climate goals. But it is still heavily reliant on coal for energy security. India's coal-fired capacity stands at almost 218GW for the 2024 fiscal year, according to government think-tank Niti Aayog, accounting for a 49pc share of the country's total installed power mix. And it aims to add 80GW more coal-fired capacity by April 2031-March 2032.

Coal-based power makes up 94pc of India's thermal power generation at present, and is likely to account for at least a 60pc share by 2030, reducing only slightly to 50pc by 2040, state-controlled producer Coal India business development director Debasish Nanda says. India's thermal power generation also includes natural gas, naphtha and diesel. India and more than 200 other countries reiterated a pledge to accelerate "efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power" at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai last year.

To reduce its reliance on coal, the Indian government has outlined plans to become a gas-based economy. It aims to increase the share of gas in its energy mix to 15pc by 2030 from about 6pc in 2022. And it plans to expand its renewable energy capacity to 500GW by 2030 from 197GW now. Solar power currently makes up the highest share of this, with 43pc or 81GW, followed by wind power with 46GW. India is set to add a further 6GW of solar-based capacity and 1.2GW of wind-based power by March 2025, according to Niti Aayog.

The power sector accounted for more than half of the increase in India's total emissions in 2023, the IEA says. Accelerating the transition is essential, but progress in individual states is highly uneven, according to a report by US-based think-tank the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and UK think-tank Ember. States such as Karnataka and Gujarat have effectively integrated renewable energy into their power sectors, but others have not. India has many central and state-level policies to encourage energy independence, but implementation has not been adequate or transparent, the report says.

Power move

Firms are taking steps to boost renewable capacity. India's largest power producer, NTPC, primarily relies on coal but its 2032 plan to become a major diversified energy supplier includes renewable and nuclear power generation, chairman and managing director Gurdeep Singh says. It expects to have about 60GW of renewable energy capacity by 2032, and is looking to add 10GW of nuclear capacity, with an additional 4GW in a joint venture with a nuclear power corporation, Singh says.

India also aims to electrify as much of its industrial sector as possible. State-controlled power transmission company Powergrid has set a target to meet 50pc of its internal energy needs through renewables by 2025 and achieve net zero emissions by 2047. Industry experts predict India's energy-related emissions are likely to increase up to 2028 and recede thereafter.

But funding still poses a challenge, especially for a country so large. India earlier this year submitted to UN climate body the UNFCCC a call for developed countries to provide at least $1 trillion/yr in climate finance to developing countries from 2025, in reference to the so-called new collective quantified goal. The government says India alone requires $70bn-80bn/yr to fund its green energy goals.

By Rituparna Ghosh and Prethika Nair

CO2 emissions by sector, India, 2021

India power capacity sources