Libya is still exporting crude nearly a month after its eastern-based administration imposed a blockade on oil fields and terminals, but a significant reduction in loadings has prompted key European customers to turn to alternative grades.
Libya exported around 389,000 b/d of crude in the 1-19 September period, according to Argus tracking data, a sharp drop from 932,000 b/d during the same period in August when Libya's pre-blockade crude output was close to 1mn b/d. Assuming Libya is keeping some crude for domestic refining and power generation, current production may now be closer to 500,000 b/d — up from previous Argus estimates of around 300,000 b/d.
The September exports are largely occurring under state-owned NOC's crude-for-products programme. This potentially bypasses the central bank, which has been at the centre of the political impasse that sparked the blockade.
Nearly half of Libyan loadings so far this month, or 189,000 b/d, have headed to Italy, according to Argus tracking. But Italy's Libyan intake averaged 329,000 b/d over January-August, so the country has sought alternatives to replace the shortfall this month.
Two cargoes of Algeria's light sweet Saharan Blend amounting to 67,000 b/d arrived in Italy in the 1-19 September period, after no cargoes in August and just one in July. Exports of Caspian light sour CPC Blend to Italy have jumped to 561,000 b/d so far this month, up from 410,000 b/d over 1-19 August and 520,000 b/d over 1-19 July, according to port reports. Availability of CPC Blend was constrained in August by maintenance at Kazakhstan's 600,000 b/d Tengiz field.
Around 92,000 b/d of Libyan crude headed for Spain in the first eight months of this year, but none has loaded for the country so far in September. Exports of CPC Blend to Spain rose to 96,000 b/d over 1-19 September, up on the 37,000 b/d shipped during the same periods in each of August and July.
