US corn ending stocks estimates were decreased 2.9pc compared with the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) prior estimate, following an increase in US corn demand.
The USDA decreased 1 September 2024 corn ending stocks to 1.76bn bu, down 52mn bu from the prior report. Market expectations were for a 32mn bu gain, which would have put stock levels at 1.844bn bu.
US corn production for the 2023-24 marketing year was revised slightly lower, down 2mn bu, to 15.34bn. This combined with a more substantial 50mn bu increase in demand for ethanol production and corn exports, ultimately resulted in the ending stock reduction.
The September Grain Stocks report is significant because its data aligns with the end of the September to August corn and soybeans marketing year. The ending stocks number reported will most likely be used in the USDA's 11 October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report. Despite the reduction, the US corn stock-to-use ratio is likely to remain above 13pc in for the 2024-25 MY in the October update.
Soybeans
Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 342mn bu as of 1 September in the Grain Stocks report, compared with the USDA's prior estimate of 340mn bu and market expectations of 351mn bu.
Market participants attributed strong crushing demand as the main reason between expectations and the reported USDA ending stocks.
Soybean production for the 2023-24 marketing year was revised down to 4.162bn bu compared with the USDA's prior estimate of 4.165bn bu. Production was revised lower due to harvested acres projected at 82.2mn acres compared with 82.4mn acres for the prior USDA estimate.
Wheat
Forecast US wheat production for the 2024-25 marketing year was lowered to 1.971bn bu compared with the prior estimate of 1.982bn bu and market expectations of 1.966bn bu.
The decrease in production was because of a decrease in projected yields, though harvested acres were forecast to increase. Yields for the 2024-25 year were forecast at 51.2bu/acre with 38.5mn acres projected at harvest. The USDA's prior estimates were 52.2bu/acre on 37.9mn harvested acres.
