US factory activity contracts for 6th month: ISM

US manufacturing activity remained in contraction in September for a sixth consecutive month, as a measure of prices shrank for the first time this year and new orders and production weakened, but at diminishing rates.

The manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) registered 47.2 in September, matching August's reading, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said today. The PMI reading, below the 50 threshold signaling contraction, marked a 22nd month of contraction out of the last 23 months.

Manufacturing accounts for about 10pc of the US economy, and the largest part of the economy — services — has expanded in six of the last eight months through August this year. ISM's services PMI report will be released Wednesday.

"Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy … and election uncertainty," ISM said. "Production execution stabilized in September. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages reappearing."

The Federal Reserve on 18 September cut its target lending rate by a half point, its first cut since 2020, and signaled another 150 basis points of cuts were likely through 2025, as it has succeeded in bringing inflation close to its 2pc target. A key employment report on Friday will factor into the Fed's thinking, with little more than a month to go before the 5 November presidential election.

The new orders index rose to 46.1 in September from 44.6 in August, reflecting a diminishing rate of contraction. Production rose to 49.8, still contracting but approaching expansion territory, from 44.8 the prior month. Employment fell to 43.9 in September from 46 the prior month, reflecting a more rapidly weakening labor market.

New export orders fell to 45.3 in September, showing deepening contraction, from 48.6, and imports fell to 48.3 from 49.6. Prices fell to 48.3 from 54. Inventories fell to 43.9, returning to pre-August low levels, from 50.3, while customers' inventory levels rose by 1.6 points to 50 in September, suggesting a "demand level that is neutral to negative for future new orders and production," ISM said.

The prices index registered 48.3, down from 54 the prior month, indicating raw material prices fell last month after eight straight months of increases.

By Bob Willis