The US phosphate market anticipates Hurricane Milton's Florida landfall later this week will cause further disruptions to regional production as the Tampa area continues to recover from Hurricane Helene.
Hurricane Milton intensified to a category 5 storm today in US Gulf waters and is on track to make landfall around the Tampa Bay area Wednesday evening as a category 3 hurricane, the National Weather Service said.
Phosphate traders expect the storm will only further tighten the market as major fertilizer producers work to overcome production losses and power outages endured during Hurricane Helene on 26 September.
One phosphate trader called the incoming storm "devastating", considering it will exacerbate existing fourth quarter scarcity from ongoing outages at Nutrien's White Springs and Mosaic's Riverview facilities.
The area surrounding Tampa Bay is home to three major phosphate processing facilities owned by producer Mosaic — with capacity totaling 5.7mn metric tonnes (t)/year — and the mines that feed them. Finished phosphate product is shipped across the US by rail to end users and exported by vessel from the port.
Mosaic's Riverview facility in Tampa experienced water intrusion from storm surge but was expected to be back to full production sometime this week, according to the company. The producer also expected some late third quarter shipments to be pushed into the fourth quarter because of the Tampa port closure.
Fellow fertilizer producer Nutrien's White Springs phosphate facility is located north of Tampa and was still assessing damage following Hurricane Helene as of today, the company said. White Springs has annual production capacity of 2mn t/year. Nutrien said it is also monitoring Hurricane Milton's path and has emergency safety measures in place for the storm.
Further production disruptions are likely with the arrival of Hurricane Milton. Fertilizer production sites in the path of major storms curb operations as a precaution and then have to assess and repair damage before restarting.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula beginning Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, the NWS said. Storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach between 8-12ft, compared to storm surge of around 6ft from Helene. Portions of Florida can expect heavy rainfall today ahead of Milton, as well as later this week.
Additionally, unlike with Helene, Mosaic's Bartow and New Wales facilities located further inland from Riverview are directly in the path of Milton on its current trajectory.
If the storm stays on its current track, it will be the worst storm to hit the Tampa area in 100 years, the NWS said. Hurricane Ian damaged phosphate facilities in 2022, causing Mosaic to reduce fourth quarter production guidance by 200,000-250,000t after the storm moved east across the Tampa Bay area.
Florida ports are beginning to limit operations ahead of the storm. Port Tampa Bay initiated its Port Heavy Weather Advisory Group, which closely monitors impacts to the port and waterways in response to Hurricane Milton. Inbound and outbound vessel traffic to the port remains open and operations will continue "as long as safely possible," the port said. SeaPort Manatee is also open to vessel and landside traffic. Both ports will likely take further precautions closer to Milton's landfall.
Mosaic did not respond to request for comment on the precautions it is taking for Milton.
