The restoration of Libyan crude production and an influx of heavy-sour Canadian grades to the US west coast has pressured light sweet Guyana crudes to their widest differential against Argus North Sea Dated since the assessments launched in February.
Values for Guyana crudes Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold fell by 20-80¢/bl last week as offer levels fell swiftly. Liza reached a $1.20/bl discount against North Sea Dated, Unity Gold fell to a 35¢/bl discount and Payara Gold a 33¢/bl discount. Liza and Unity Gold fell to their lowest value since Argus began to assess the grades, while Payara Gold fell to its lowest level since mid-March.
European refiners had turned toward Guyana after the 26 August start of the Libyan oil blockade, with imports rising by around 200,000 b/d to almost 456,000 b/d in September, according to data analytics firm Vortexa, reflecting the highest flows on that route since March.
Libya has since recovered to more than 1mn b/d of production after the country's oil blockade ended on 3 October, according to data from state-owned oil company NOC published last week.
Output in September was less than half of pre-blockade levels, with Libya's crude exports down to 460,000 b/d in that month compared with 1.02mn b/d in August, according to Kpler data.
Projected October Guyana exports to Europe are 205,000 b/d lower than September at only 193,000 b/d, Vortexa data shows.
TMX takeover
Guyana prices also could be under pressure from added competition on the Americas Pacific coast from crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline.
In May, before the startup of TMX, Guyanese exports to the US totaled 68,000 b/d, data from Vortexa shows. Refiners did not purchase any Guyanese grades in June and August, and imports in July and September were more than halved from May levels at 32,000 b/d and 29,000 b/d, respectively. Vortexa estimates October deliveries will only amount to less than 29,000 b/d, a 57pc decrease since the start of TMX.
TMX has quickly become a valuable crude source to US west coast refiners, displacing many Latin American grades in the process. Ecuadorean crude imports have trended lower since May, and were down by 30pc from June-September compared to a year earlier. Crude volumes arriving at Panama's PTP pipeline from Colombia — a common way US west coast refiners receive Colombian crude — have also trended lower since July. September crude receipts of Colombian grades into Panama have fallen from 173,000 b/d in July to 50,000 b/d in September.
