B24 bunker demand in the key ports of Singapore, Zhoushan and Fujairah will likely rise in 2025, because of increased demand ahead of the implementation of the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation.
Regional demand for B24 — which consists of 24pc used cooking oil methy ester (Ucome) and 76pc very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) — is expected to rise as shipowners prepare to meet more stringent mandates set by the EU and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) from next year, said market participants.
FuelEU Maritime aims to raise the share of renewable and low-carbon fuels in the fuel mix of maritime transport within the EU, and will set requirements for greenhouse gas emission reductions against a 2020 baseline level, starting with 2pc in 2025. The use of B24 is a relatively low-cost way to help meet the new mandate and is available at key ports globally.
Competition for B24 is rising in Asia and the Middle East as port authorities revisit local rules and permits. The Zhoushan Port Authority will obtain the domestic blend permit by the end of the year, it said recently at a local conference,which will pave the way for key local refiners to blend and sell B24 to local and international shipowners.
The quota is likely to be divided among Chinese majors like PetroChina (CNPC), Sinopec, and CNOOC. The port authorities further mentioned that CNPC and Sinopec are expected to each receive a blending quota of 200,000t of B24, while CNOOC will receive a blend quota of 100,000t in 2025. There were no further details available or any other formal announcement.
But regional traders and shipowners, which have been waiting for the lifting of restrictions by the Chinese government, expect the move will allow shipowners more options to bunker B24 in this region.
European market participants expect this B24 blending permit, if allocated, may pull some marine biodiesel demand towards Zhoushan and away from shipowners operating on east-west routes between Singapore and Europe.B24 blends in Zhoushan could end up pricing very competitively against VLSFO when EU emission trading system (ETS) costs are accounted for, given easing prices for Chinese-origin biodiesel, participants added. And FuelEU Maritime's pooling mechanism, which allows shipowners to pool different vessels together to achieve overall compliance across the pool, will enable shipowners that operate east-west routes to pool those vessels with other vessels that operate only within the EU — opening the door for marine biodiesel bunkered in Zhoushan to help meet FuelEU compliance.
Singapore
B24 consumption has been on the rise in Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, through 2024 because of demand from regional and international shipowners for refuelling of this blended marine fuels. B24 consumption touched 470,300t between January to September, according to data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA).
Demand for B24 is expected to near 800,000t by the end of 2024, up from 518,000t in 2023. Zhoushan remains competitively priced versus Singapore for VLSFO, with Singapore's delivered on board (dob) prices for the past year showing a $3/t premium versus Zhoushan on average, based on Argus data.
But Singapore-based traders remain confident that the city-state will continue to lead the region in terms of B24 bunkering demand into 2025. "I think both ports will co-exist and there will be price competition…also it doesn't replace Singapore as the main port, do note," said a key global trader and refiner.
Singapore is also the cheapest in terms of B24 pricing, compared with other key ports like Rotterdam and Fujairah. The spread between Singapore versus Rotterdam since 24 April shows a $94/t discount for bunkering in the former port, while the discount for Singapore with Fujairah stood at an average of $39.4/t, based on Argus data.
Middle East
Bunkering B24 has been picking up in the Middle East since the end of 2023, with sporadic demand trickling in this year. "We receive enquiries for B24 once or twice a month, sometimes even less than that for small volumes of 150-200t," one Fujairah-based trader said. But this could change following the implementation of the EU's FuelEU Maritime regulation from January 2025 .
The EU is an important market and a regular destination for much of the maritime traffic passing through Fujairah, so the new regulations are likely to be a trigger for change, market participants said. "Many vessels refuel in Fujairah before calling at EU ports," one trader says. "They already have to comply with the EU ETS, [Carbon Intensity Index], and will need to also comply with FuelEU."
