Mexico's new President Claudia Sheinbaum has a chance at the UN's Cop 29 climate conference next month to show that the country wants to catch up to the cleaner energy transition, despite her recent constitutional reforms seen as delaying the shift.
With less than a month until the conference starts, it is not clear yet if Sheinbaum will attend the summit or who will be part of the Mexican delegation in Baku, Azerbaijan. The previous administration, that ended on 30 September, had planned to send the former foreign minister alongside a group of youth ambassadors for climate in Mexico. The energy ministry, led by Luz Elena Gonzalez, did not reply to Argus' requests for information about Mexico's plans for Cop 29.
Mexico's participation in previous climate summits during the administration of former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had been minimal as the previous government put little effort into being well represented.
Sheinbaum promised to lead the country into a fast and just energy transition. During her inauguration speech, Sheinbaum promised the country will reach 45pc renewable electricity generation by 2030 and implement an ambitious energy transition plan but she did not provide a timeline. In contrast, Sheinbaum has sent more worrying signals to private investors than positive ones because of her decision to move forward with controversial constitutional amendments that show a different picture regarding energy transition and climate.
Mexico committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 35pc by 2030 at Cop 27 in Egypt but energy and climate analysts say there has not been any updated information to track the advances on this pledge.
"If we look at her agenda, one of Sheinbaum's priorities is the transition to clean energy before 2030," said researcher Ana Lilia Moreno at think tank Mexico Evalua. "But Sheinbaum's energy strategy proposes a centralization of the electricity sector, creating great uncertainty about the rules for the investments coming from the private sector."
Private-sector renewable companies appear willing to finally put an end to the impasse experienced during the previous administration. But the energy reform approved by congress, which puts state-owned Pemex and CFE at the center of the energy sector, alongside with the amendments that will overhaul the judicial branch, create an upsetting business environment in Mexico, they say. Investors remain worried that Sheinbaum will continue with her predecessor's energy policies.
But the government is committed to not destroy the private energy sector with the reform, but to complement it, said Altagracia Gomez, head of the government's business advisory council. "The priority is to strengthen Pemex and CFE but not at the expense of private companies," said Gomez.
The government is now working on legal modifications to implement the reform. These changes will clarify how the government plans to ensure CFE generates 54pc of Mexico's electricity, leaving 46pc to the private sector. But investors hope to see something far away from the energy reform passed in 2021, which was defeated in the supreme court.
Slow progress
The share of clean electricity in Mexico's power mix was 24.3pc in 2023, according to energy ministry data.
Mexico's nationally determined contribution (NDC) includes a target to increase renewables capacity to 40GW by 2030, but development of new clean energy capacity since former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office in 2018 has been limited.
Mexico's total renewable capacity is around 20GW, which it will need to triple over the next six years to reach its target of 43pc of renewable energy in its generation mix by 2030.
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