Coal stocks at South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) reached 4.02mn t in the week to 3 November, crossing the 4mn t mark for the first time since 2022. The build came amid elevated coal prices and curtailed demand from utilities in key markets such as India.
Inventories were about 57,000t higher on the week, as state-owned rail operator Transnet Freight Rail delivered 1.11mn t to the port. Despite coal exports pegged at 1mn t from 28 October to 3 November, the overall lag in demand is evident in a lack of spot deals.
Notably, shipments to South Korea were similar to those headed for India, which usually takes the majority of RBCT shipments. Exports to India stood at 526,000t, while South Korea-bound deliveries were 438,000t. A Capesize vessel also left for China. The recent downturn in India's coal intake has been partially offset by the South Korean demand, which has been supported by a recent flurry of tenders by South Korean state-controlled utilities refraining from bidding for Russian coal.
Market participants were expecting demand from Indian sponge iron utilities to pick up after the Diwali holidays but are "yet to see any signs of recovery", a trader said.
Prices for NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal have been rangebound at $109-113/t for a month, which Indian buyers say is higher than usual, cutting into their production margins.
Separately, the arbitrage for Capesizes to move from Richards Bay to Rotterdam was open all of last week, closing only on 4 November, but elevated South African NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal prices have eroded the origin's discount to the market — giving Colombian coal an advantage.
Argus assessed South African NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal at $110.21/t on 4 November, with Richards Bay to Rotterdam freight for Capesize vessel on the same day at $9.40/t.
