European gas-fired power generation has been strong this month on the back of still, cloudy weather, bolstering gas consumption across the bloc.
Gas-fired generation across the EU stepped up sharply on 4 November and averaged 62GW on 4-11 November, according to data from research institute Fraunhofer ISE, as both wind and solar generation have been muted. Gas-fired generation averaged 32GW earlier this month and 34GW in October.
In Germany — the country with the greatest installed wind capacity in Europe — gas-fired generation stepped up to 10.8GW on 4-11 November, from 4.8GW earlier in the month and 4.8GW in October. Argus-estimated German power-sector gas demand accordingly rose to 671 GWh/d from 287 GWh/d and 293 GWh/d across the same three periods. Coal- and lignite-fired generation have also increased.
At the same time, combined German onshore and offshore wind generation dropped to 4.9GW from 13.9GW on 1 October-3 November, according to data from European system operators' association Entso-E. And solar generation retreated to 1.9GW from 4.8GW across the same time frames. But German combined wind generation was projected on 7 November to grow in the coming days, hitting a high in the next two weeks of 34GW on 18 November, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler.
The UK has limited power-generation sources relative to other European countries, and is more reliant on gas-fired generation to meet power demand when wind and solar are low. UK power-sector gas demand jumped to 73.3mn m³/d on 4-8 November, before dipping to 48.1mn m³/d in the past three days. UK power-sector gas demand was at its highest on 4 October for any day since 18 January.
Cloudy weather in the UK that had weighed on solar generation has eased in recent days. UK solar generation rose above 1GW on 11 November, after having averaged 248GW earlier in the month, according to BMRS data. And UK wind generation was forecast by Kpler to rise steadily to 11.5GW on 16 November before dipping slightly, having averaged 3.9GW on 1-10 November but climbing to 9.8GW on 11 November.
Impact on gas
The still and cloudy weather conditions have buoyed gas consumption at a time of muted LNG deliveries to Europe, bolstering the call on storage, which may have supported prices in recent days.
The Dutch TTF front-month market — the European benchmark — closed at €43.91 on 11 November, up from €42.08/MWh at the previous close and €38.835/MWh at the start of the month. Market participants attributed the rise to a faster-than-expected stockdraw.
There have been consistent net withdrawals from EU storage since 29 October, averaging 1.7 TWh/d since that time, GIE transparency platform data show. Withdrawals were particularly brisk on 5-8 November, averaging 3.5 TWh/d.
This has drawn stocks down to 1.07PWh, equating to 93.4pc of capacity, below the 1.13TWh stored a year earlier, when sites were at 99.4pc of capacity. Last year the stockdraw began in earnest on 13 November.
Lower stocks than a year earlier may have contributed to the TTF summer 2025 market closing above the following winter in recent weeks, which if maintained may provide no incentive for firms to inject next summer.
