The French government could be set to fall within days, leaving its energy programme up in the air, after far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) declared it would launch a vote of no confidence.
Prime minister Michel Barnier today announced he would use a parliamentary manoeuvre to push through a budget for the social security system without a vote. Since his nomination in September, Barnier has been attempting to achieve consensus on state budgets for 2025, while lacking a majority in the parliament.
Left-wing and right-wing groups responded to today's move by promising to launch motions of no confidence. The RN had previously tacitly supported Barnier, preserving him in office as he prepares the budget, which must be finished before the end of the year.
A successful vote of no confidence on 4 December at the earliest would require 289 deputies, a majority of the national assembly, to vote in favour. A previous confidence vote on 8 October garnered 197 in favour, falling short. But the 121 RN deputies supported the government on that occasion, and their switch to the opposition could provide enough votes for the measure to pass.
If the government falls, no new parliamentary elections can be held until June. President Emmanuel Macron could name a new prime minister, but this appointee would not have a majority either. And left- and right-wing groups have called on him to resign and trigger new presidential elections.
If the budget does not pass, the government's energy programme could be delayed or ignored. A potential way forward out of the budget deadlock could be to pass a special budget law, which would carry forward measures already in place this year, extending them for a month at a time until a permanent budget can be voted through.
Changes which could not go forward in this situation could include a mooted increase to the tax on electricity — taking it up to roughly €30/MWh from 1 February 2025, from current levels of €21-21.50/MWh. Others include changes planned to subsidies for domestic energy efficiency measures and electric vehicles.
