Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state increased its outlook for the 2024-25 winter corn crop, based on higher projected acreage.
The state now expects to produce 45.8mn metric tonnes (t) of corn this season, up from 45.5mn t in November's outlook, according to Mato Grosso's agricultural economics institute Imea. That is less than the 47.2mn t produced in the 2023-24 crop.
The estimate for planted area advanced to 6.83mn hectares (ha) from 6.79mn ha. That is almost 0.6pc above the 2023-24 area. The upwards revision follows recent increase of corn prices in the state, allowing for more farmers to cover production costs.
Yields are estimated at 111.7 60kg bags/ha, roughly stable from November and a 3.4pc drop from 115.6 bags/ha in the 2023-24 cycle. That is a preliminary forecast based on the average from the three prior seasons, as sowing is only set to begin in January 2025. A slight change this month follows the area readjustment that alters the average for each region and their share to the state result.
Cotton
Unfavorable weather conditions that delayed soybean sowing dropped the state's 2024-25 cotton output to 2.7mn t, a 1.8pc drop from November's outlook.
The delay in soybean sowing can extend harvest periods and hamper cotton sowing within the ideal window.
Still, volumes are up by 2.4pc from the 2023-24 cycle. The year-on-year increase is still driven by cotton's higher profitability than in the previous season, which encourages farmer investments.
Total sowed area is expected at 1.5mn ha, a 1.8pc decrease from November's estimate but up by 5pc from the 2023-24 season.
Yields remain projected at 284.3 15kg bags/ha, based on a three-year average, since the factors that define crop yields are yet unknown, such as climate conditions and the ideal planting window period. That is 2.6pc below 2023-24 levels.
Soybeans
Mato Grosso continues set to produce 44mn t of soybeans in the 2024-25 season, unchanged from November's estimate.
That is a near 13pc hike from the 39.1mn t in the 2023-24 crop.
The 2024-25 yields remain projected at almost 58 60kg bags/ha. But it is still too early in the cycle to make more certain projections, as sowing finished last week. The prior season yielded 52.2 bags/ha.
The outlook for planted area is also stable at 12.7mn ha, 1.5pc above the 2023-24 season.
