Brazilian farmers are advancing forward sales for the 2024-25 soybean crop at a faster pace than in the prior year, spurred by the weakening Brazilian real and fears of a decrease in international prices because of global oversupply.
The 2024-25 oilseed crop was approximately 33pc sold as of the end of November, market participants estimate. That accounts for 54.8mn metric tonnes (t) of the 166.2mn t projected for the entire crop by national supply company Conab.
The 2023-24 crop was 28pc negotiated at the same time in 2023 based on December 2023 Conab estimates. However, final consolidated numbers for the 2023-24 crop came in at 147.7mn t, which means nearly 31pc was sold at the same time last year.
A major factor boosting negotiations in recent weeks has been the weakening trend of the Brazilian real to the US dollar. Farmers usually receive payment for their sales in US dollars, which turns the more than 20pc annual depreciation of the Brazilian real into an economic upside as producers exchange those dollars back into larger quantities of reals at home.
The Brazilian real-US dollar exchange rate ended the day above R6/$1 for the first time in history on 30 November and the real has hovered in that range since.
A significant share of producers also worry about the impacts of record output over prices. During the harvesting months of the 2022-23 crop — which holds the current national record at 154.6mn t — domestic soybean prices and port differentials decreased sharply, and have yet to return to levels reached in prior seasons.
The most optimistic market participants project 2024-25 production at up to 175mn t, a scenario very likely should weather conditions remain favorable in most of the country's main producing states. That may lead to another sharp downward trend in prices during the harvesting months. Losses could be especially intense between February-March, when most areas are set to be harvested.
But these concerns were not enough to offset the seasonal reduction in farmers' pace of sales. Farmers usually postpone negotiations to the following year, while domestic demand also fizzles out as most factories from the biofuels, animal feed and food sectors undergo maintenance shutdowns in December. Negotiations advanced by 6.6mn t in November, down from 8.3mn t sold throughout October.
As for the 2023-24 crop, sales are almost finished at 92pc sold of the 147.4mn t produced in the cycle, advancing by 3 percentage points from the same period a year ago. That is roughly in line with the total sold at this time last year for the 2022-23 season and the average for the end of November.
Corn sales recover
The 2024-25 winter corn crop negotiations reached almost 20pc sold out of expected production of 90.3mn t for the cycle. Despite being below a 30pc average for this time of the year, the sales pace posted a recovery compared with the past two years, when negotiations had barely surpassed the 12pc mark, which equates to less than 15mn t negotiated.
Farmers are also ahead on the yearly comparison with the 2023-24 crop. The prior cycle is approximately 85pc — or 76.8mn t — sold through the end of November, which is roughly in line with the usual pace for this time of year. That compares with nearly 73pc and 72pc sold for the last two seasons, in 2022 and 2023, at this time of the year.
Deals were halted by late 2022, as farmers expected prices to maintain an upward trend in the following year. But the opposite happened because of an oversupplied global market. Then, producers struggled to advance sales in 2023 and most of 2024, selling only according to their own financial needs and occasional price increases.
The recovery seen in recent months took support from the domestic market's record demand, mainly from the animal feed and corn ethanol sectors. Both are set to reach record production levels in 2024 and repeat the feat in the next year.
But the pace of sales has slowly easing in recent weeks, as is usual for this time of year when factories schedule maintenance shutdowns and collective holidays. Negotiations usually pick up once again for the domestic market by the second half of January, while sales to the export market accelerate after planting is finished around June.
Market participants expect that farmers may slowly advance sales into the first half of 2024. Global corn consumption is set to surpass production by approximately 20mn t in 2024-25, according to estimates from the US Department of Agriculture. This will likely boost international prices in 2025.
