Emulsion-grade polyvinyl chloride (E-PVC) producers and buyers are racing to build inventories ahead of potential US tariffs on imported goods, according to market participants at the Vinyl Week conference this week in Louisville, Kentucky.
President-elect Donald Trump has said he would impose 25pc tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico after he takes office next month, and that he would raise tariffs on Chinese imports by 10pc.
Tariffs on Mexican imports are of particular concern to buyers who rely on the country for some imported E-PVC, also known as specialty or paste PVC.
Some US buyers at the conference sponsored by the Plastics Industry Association said a more expansive tariff policy would not only raise delivered prices for E-PVC, it also would also be inflationary for everyday goods. Higher prices could reduce consumer spending power and cut demand for E-PVC in flooring or automotive manufacturing.
Other buyers of E-PVC said a more focused scope for tariffs that centered on supporting industry in the US could be beneficial. One flooring producer said tariffs could allow it to recapture market share for products like luxury vinyl tile that have been increasingly dominated by imports from countries like China. Flooring is one of the two largest end use consumers for E-PVC.
Suppliers are taking precautions, even if the tariff policy proves to be limited.
European producers with extensive warehouse networks in the US have been exporting even greater volumes to North America ahead of potential tariffs that Trump threatened during his campaign, as well before a potential resumption of dockworker strikes in mid-January.
US distributors are building inventories of Mexican imports in order to beat the threatened tariffs.
US dependence on E-PVC imports deepened after Orbia closed its 60,000 t/yr Pedricktown, New Jersey plant in the fourth quarter with plans to supply US cusomers from its plant in Marl, Germany. The closure leaves the US E-PVC manufacturing capacity at around 156,000 t/yr. While the E-PVC market is more niche compared to the suspension-grade market used in pipe production, the US is structurally short on supply for specialty resins.
Many E-PVC buyers with operations on both sides of the Atlantic expect US demand growth to be stronger than in Europe. Some European producers have been raising operating rates above 70pc because exporting excess volume to the US was a viable option. Tariffs could challenge that strategy as higher import prices for US buyers would pressure export prices, and European producers are not inclined to cut prices, market participants said.
If Trump does not implement his promised tariffs, E-PVC buyers and producers alike generally agreed that US market demand would be stable to up slightly in 2025.
