US federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail permitting and regulatory services if no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET to extend funding for the government.
US president-elect Donald Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — on 18 December upended a spending deal US House of Representatives speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump endorsed an alternative proposal that Johnson put together, but that measure failed in a 174-235 vote late on Thursday, with 38 Republicans and nearly every Democrat voting against it.
Trump via social media today indicated he would not push for a new funding bill. "If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration, not after January 20th, under 'TRUMP,'" he wrote.
There was little to indicate as of Friday morning that Trump, Republican congressional leadership and lawmakers were negotiating in earnest to avert a shutdown. The House Republican conference is due to meet in the afternoon to weigh its next steps.
President Joe Biden said he would support the first funding deal that Johnson negotiated with the Democratic lawmakers. "Republicans are doing the bidding of their billionaire benefactors at the expense of hardworking Americans," the White House said.
Any agreement on funding the government will have to secure the approval of the House Republican leadership and all factions of the Republican majority in the House, who appear to be looking for cues from Trump and Musk on how to proceed. Any deal would then require the support of at least 60 House Democrats to clear the procedural barriers, before it reaches the Senate where the Democrats hold a majority.
The same factors will be in play even if the shutdown extends into early 2025. The Republicans are set to take the majority in the Senate when new Congress meets on 3 January. But their House majority will be even slimmer, at 219-215, requiring cooperation of Democratic lawmakers and the Biden administration.
What happens when the government shuts down?
Some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed.
The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said.
The US Department of Energy, which includes the Energy Information Administration and its critical energy data provision services, expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan.
The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year.
The Interior Department's shutdown contingency plan calls for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to furlough 4,900 out of its nearly 10,000 employees. BLM, which is responsible for permitting oil, gas and coal activities on the US federal land, would cease nearly all functions other than law enforcement and emergency response.
Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which oversees offshore leases, would continue permitting activities but would furlough 60pc of its staff after its funding lapses. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will keep processing some oil and gas exploration plans with an on-call group of 40 exempted personnel, such as time-sensitive actions related to ongoing work.
The shutdown also affects multiple other regulatory and permitting functions across other government agencies, including the Departments of Agriculture, Transportation and Treasury.
