Opec said today that the US' new trade policies have added "more uncertainty" into global oil markets.
This uncertainty "has the potential to create supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, and therefore generate more volatility", Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
The producer group said the uncertainty has also "increased inflation expectations" and "made it more challenging to cut interest rates in 2025".
US president Donald Trump started his new term in January with threats to impose a wide array of import tariffs on several big trading partners. Washington has so far announced new tariffs on imports from China, as well as on all US imports of steel and aluminium. And Trump says more tariffs are on the way.
For now, Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 unchanged. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d.
In terms of supply, the group has downgraded its growth forecast for non-Opec+ liquids for 2025 and 2026 by 100,000 b/d each to 1mn b/d for both years. The downgrade is driven by the US and Latin America.
Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 118,000 b/d to 40.625mn b/d, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026.
