Argus Potash Analytics
Overview
The Argus Potash Analytics service connects you with industry-leading potash market intelligence. The service includes quarterly reports and data with 15-year forecasts of supply, demand, trade and prices, and one longer-term annual report with 25-year forecasts (based on Long Run Marginal Cost analysis).
We empower potash market participants to make informed business decisions. Use the service to:
- Inform your business plans: Get robust, actionable and industry leading insight on medium to long-term market developments and outlook
- Mitigate risk to your business: Stay up to date with potential regulations, policy changes and market fundamentals challenges
- Access comprehensive market data: Explore extensive raw data to assist your research and planning – and integrate the data into your models
- Find your next big opportunity: Our proprietary datasets and expert insight help you identify and capitalise on future opportunities
Key features
Price forecasts: 15-years and 25-years
Quarterly 15-year and 25-year forecasts are provided for potash benchmark prices, including Standard MOP Vancouver fob, Granular MOP Vancouver fob, Standard MOP NW Europe fob, Granular MOP Baltic fob, Granular MOP Brazil cfr, Standard MOP Southeast Asia cfr, Standard SOP NW Europe fob, Granular SOP NW Europe fob
Supply and demand forecasts: 15-years
Quarterly 15-year forecasts and in-depth analysis is provided for potash supply and demand (includes MOP and SOP capacity projects tracker and forecast, supply reductions/ramp-up, crop prices analysis, SOP and MOP demand forecast). Short and medium-term potash supply/demand balance included
Trade forecasts: 15-years
Import and export analysis and 15-year forecasts for MOP and SOP, covering key countries such as Brazil, China, US, Laos, Canada
Cost curves analysis
The service includes Argus MOP and SOP cash cost curves for the current year for all key MOP and SOP producers, updated quarterly. Cost curves included: MOP fob cost curve, MOP Brazil cfr delivered cost curve, MOP China cfr delivered cost curve, SOP fob cost curve
Project analysis/spotlight feature
Each quarterly issue of the service includes an in-depth project review (including full cost analysis, financial review and evaluation of cash flow) or spotlight features (including country focused analysis of nations such as Ukraine, Belarus and Russia)
Best-in-class methodology
Our key methodologies include our demand forecasting model based on calorie and crop forecasts to guide our view of future fertilizer consumption and our Long-Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) multi-factor model to assess the level of prices beyond the current investment cycle
Proprietary datasets
Explore our comprehensive proprietary data to assist your research and planning – and integrate the data into your models
Quarterly reports
Narrative and graphical analysis of what is driving the potash market and how it is likely to evolve, ensuring you will be more confident in making critical decisions. Includes key insight on supply, demand, costs, trade and projects, with 15-year forecasts for supply, demand and prices
Annual long-term report
Detailed, long-form analysis of all the historical and long-term potash market trends. Use the report to reveal the connections between underlying market drivers and use these insights to develop more robust strategies. Includes 25-year price forecast based on Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) analysis
Customers that benefit
Below are examples of clients that use this service:
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Producers and suppliers
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Traders
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Energy and utilities companies
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Shipping and port authorities
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Procurement teams
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Industry analysts
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Governments
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Financial institutions including bankers and investors
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Wholesalers
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Co-ops and retailers
Product specifications
Key price assessments
Argus potash price assessments are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.
