Japanese power firms should take sufficient precautions to ensure stable electricity supplies during the next winter peak demand season to avoid the risk of severe shortages hitting large parts of the country again, power agency the organisation for cross-regional co-ordination of transmission operators (Occto) warned.
Seven of Japan's 10 regions, excluding Hokkaido, Tohoku and Okinawa, have a projected power surplus of just 5.8pc over the average peak demand during the top three demand days in February 2022, according Occto's latest survey. The optimal power reserve in Japan is more than 8pc, with a minimum of 3pc needed to tackle emergencies such as power plant closures and spikes in peak demand.
The reserve levels in the seven regions are likely to fall below 3pc if a major cold snap hits Japan again, as it did this winter, Occto said. The Tokyo area would be worse-hit than other areas, with demand expected to outstrip supply from January-February in similar weather conditions.
Power supply in Tokyo is estimated at 52,460MW for January and 52,040MW for February 2022, lower than expected peak demand of 53,320MW for both months.
The possibility of a power shortage across the country became apparent after the Occto conducted its annual survey of Japanese power firms' electricity supply plans for the next 10 years. The survey revealed around 13GW of power capacity is scheduled for maintenance closures in February 2022.
Octto criticised the scheduling of maintenance during a peak demand season, insisting that power producers should take into account the overall power supply and demand balance, not just direct contracts with their customers. But the agency also pointed out that a number of power retailers have not yet decided where they will buy their electricity, leading to increased closures for repair works.
Occto called for power firms to rethink their maintenance schedules, and for power retailers to better plan for the peak demand season. The agency is planning to monitor the power market, including fuel procurements, and disclose necessary information from autumn this year in an attempt to avoid severe power shortages during the winter months.
Japan experienced a power shortage in January this year because of a series of factors, including extended icy weather, higher-than-expected demand, lower nuclear and solar output and a shortage of thermal generation fuels, especially LNG.
Occto's survey also revealed that Japan will face difficulty achieving its 2030 power mix goal without taking actions such as accelerating the phase-out of inefficient coal-fired power plants and increasing nuclear output.
Power companies' supply plans for 2030, which exclude the impact of possible falls in coal-fired generation and the restart of nuclear reactors, showed that coal and nuclear will account for 36pc and 4pc of output respectively, with LNG at 30pc, oil at 2pc and renewable sources at 28pc.
This does not align with the government's current target of a 26pc share for coal and 20-22pc for nuclear in 2030, although the projected shares for other power sources are relatively similar to the target of 27pc for LNG, 3pc for oil and 22-24pc for renewables.
