The Iranian authorities are imposing a two-week ban on mobility and five-day-long lockdown amid what the country has dubbed its fifth — and thus far most deadly — wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
As of today all non-essential travel in Iran, both within cities and between provinces, has been banned until 27 August, with an exception only for emergency vehicles or vehicles transporting food and other essentials goods. The authorities have also announced a closure of all non-essential workplaces from tomorrow through the end of the coming working week on 21 August.
The decisions comes as Iran registered a record high 588 deaths related to Covid-19 on 9 August, and a record high 42,541 Covid-19 cases on 11 August, as the country struggles to manage the spread of the virus — particularly of the more infectious delta strain which is more dominant now in the Mideast Gulf region.
Iran's slow roll out of vaccinations is also exacerbating the situation further with the country's healthcare system showing signs that it could soon begin to buckle. Iran averaged 37,000 new Covid-19 cases per day in the first two weeks of August, up sharply from an average of 21,500 cases a day in July, and 9,700 a day in June.
Iran's latest efforts to tame this fifth Covid-19 wave is almost certain to cause transport fuel demand in the country to fall, as it did previously with the introduction of such measures.
Gasoline demand fell to as low as 315,000 b/d in April last year when the country introduced strict lockdown measuresfor the first time in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Demand then recovered back to pre-pandemic levels of 530,000 b/d in September, but fell once again to around 390,000 b/d by December 2020 as case numbers began to rise again and restrictions were re-imposed.
Gasoline demand stood at around 431,000 b/d in the first quarter of this year, rising to around 500,000 b/d in April, according to consultancy FGE. But demand trended downward thereafter as restrictions and a full lockdown were reimposed following another surge in case numbers in the weeks following the Iranian new year holidays. Gasoil demand stood at 495,000 b/d in April, versus 679,000 b/d on average in the first quarter of 2021.
