Spanish LNG sendout rose yesterday to its highest since 24 August and could remain strong today, spurred by robust import demand from Germany.
Spanish sendout of 814GWh yesterday was the highest since late August, as pipeline exports to France rose to 106GWh, their highest since 3 July (see sendout graph). Rising French pipeline imports from Spain may have been driven by higher German import demand.
The increase in France's receipts from Spain pushed up onward deliveries to Belgium to 187GWh yesterday from 137 GWh/d earlier in the month. In turn, Belgium's exports to Germany reached 541GWh yesterday, the highest daily figure since 30 July. German pipeline receipts from Norway fell yesterday as maintenance at the Dornum interconnection point restricted imports to 92GWh, down from 484 GWh/d earlier in the month.
France is less equipped to meet increased demand from neighbouring countries with regasified LNG at the moment, with the 6.6mn t/yr Fos Cavaou LNG import facility undergoing maintenance until the end of the 3 October gas day. Germany could continue importing from Belgium today with 30mn m³ — roughly 345GWh — of supply nominated at the Dornum point, although this is less than half its 68mn m³/d (782 GWh/d) — capacity, despite no works being scheduled there, according to Norwegian system operator Gassco. But the Germany VTP month-ahead price closed €0.40/MWh above the Spanish PVB yesterday, suggesting a continued incentive for west-to-east pipeline flows next month.
Warm weather could continue to delay the onset of heating demand in Spain, allowing greater scope for pipeline exports. Overnight temperatures in Madrid were forecast today to hold 3.2°C above seasonal norms at 13.8°C from 28 September-12 October. Demand from households and small businesses has been muted so far this month at 513 GWh/d, below the three-year monthly average of 542 GWh/d.
And strong Spanish solar generation has limited the call on gas-fired units. Spanish power sector gas demand averaged 331 GWh/d from 1-27 September, below the three-year average of 399 GWh/d for the full month and is on track to be the lowest for any September since 2018. Solar generation averaged 5.2GW over the period, up from 4.3GW in September 2022 and is on track to set a new record this month.
