The price of renewable fuel tickets in the UK and the Netherlands has firmed in recent trading sessions, but tickets remain a more competitive option to comply with domestic renewable fuel mandates than physical biofuels blending.
Tickets are tradeable credits primarily generated by the sale of biofuel-blended fuels and are used to help obligated parties meet mandates for the use of renewable energy in transport.
In the Netherlands, "other" and advanced renewable fuel units (HBE-Os and HBE-Gs) hit a more than three-week high of €11.10/GJ on 6 March, while in the UK, non-crop renewable transport fuel certificates (RTFCs) reached 26.25 pence/RTFC on 5 March, the highest level since 29 January.
Despite the increase, RTFCs are at a discount to the like-for-like blend value of used cooking oil methyl esther (Ucome) biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) Class II (see graph). And in the Netherlands, HBE-Gs remain well below the like-for-like blend value of palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil-based HVO (Class IV). This typically discourages obligated parties to physically blend biofuels.
Biodiesel and HVO prices increased on higher feedstock costs, market participants said. The premiums of HVO Class II and IV against the HVO-escalated 7-28 day Ice gasoil price reached $800/m³ and $785/m³, respectively, on 7 March, the highest since 12 February.
Meanwhile, the Argus Ucome biodiesel fob ARA price rose to $1,453.24/t on 4 March, its highest since 3 December. And last week, the Argus UCO fob ARA assessment hit its highest level since October 2022, driven by low supply in the ARA region and a stronger euro against the US dollar. A closed arbitrage with China, Europe's biggest importer of UCO, is putting further pressure on supply in the region, market participants said.
UCO trade flows shifted away from Europe last year as significant amounts of Chinese product moved to the US at the expense of flows elsewhere. But there may be some relief for European buyers in 2025 as US buyers wait for clarity on the Inflation Reduction Act's carbon intensity-based 45Z credit.
President Donald Trump's doubling of pre-existing tariffs on Chinese imports to the US to 20pc is yet to have an impact on the European market, although participants said it could put a ceiling on further price gains.
SAF blending pressures HBE-IXBs
HBE-IXB tickets — generated by blending biofuels made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX part B of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive — have been moving in the opposite direction. The Argus Netherlands HBE-IXB price softened to its lowest since October last year on 13 February, at €9.50/GJ (see graph). It has since risen slightly, reaching €9.75/GJ on 11 March.
The tickets are under pressure from stronger supply as some are being offered by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blenders, market participants said. Biofuels in aviation benefit from a 1.2x multiplier, in addition to the double counting rule for waste feedstocks.
An EU-wide SAF mandate — ReFuelEU — came into effect on 1 January, replacing national obligations. Under the mandate, fuel suppliers will need to include 2pc SAF in their jet fuel deliveries in 2025, rising to 6pc in 2030.
UCO-based hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthesised paraffinic kerosine (HEFA-SPK) is the most common type of SAF available today. In the Netherlands, blending HEFA-SPK SAF into jet fuel can generate HBE-IXBs.
But the Dutch ministry of infrastructure is consulting on its second draft to transpose the recast RED III. If the current draft is implemented, the Netherlands will introduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction mandates from 2026 for land, inland shipping and maritime shipping. The first draft also included an aviation subcategory, but it was removed in February.
GHG-quota by blending less lucrative in Germany
The increase in biodiesel and HVO prices in the ARA region has not had an impact on German GHG certificates. Buying GHG certificates remains more cost effective than physical blending for fuel suppliers. But market participants anticipate prices rising from the end of March, which could reverse this trend.
Overall blending in Germany is expected to increase this year to generate new GHG tickets, after carry-over was frozen, forcing producers to build their GHG balance from scratch in order to fulfil their 2025 quotas. Many market participants remain focused on their 2024 balance for now, and demand for advanced biofuels and HVO in Germany has been slow so far this year.
