Venezuelan National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó´s decision to negotiate with the government of President Nicolas Maduro is reopening fractures in the opposition movement.
The two sides will meet this week in Oslo for a first round of face-to-face talks, following an initial mediation by the Norwegian government in early May.
The talks will take place amid sharply deteriorating economic and social conditions in the Opec country, where oil production has plummeted to around 700,000 b/d, after sinking as low as 500,000 b/d in recent weeks.
Former Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma -- exiled in Spain-- and Maria Corina Machado, two leading opposition figures, are warning Guaidó that talks are a strategic and tactical mistake that could unravel his support and cement Maduro's rule. Diego Arria, Venezuela´s influential former ambassador to the UN now exiled in the US, also questions the validity of the negotiations.
An opposition group called "Soy Venezuela" (I am Venezuela) issued a statement rejecting the talks as a repeat of the failed dialogue in the Dominican Republic in 2016-17.
Guaidó, who is recognized as Venezuela's interim president by the US and more than 50 other governments, acknowledged in a 25 May statement that his team would "explore a possible negotiated exit of the dictatorship", at the invitation of Norway.
"We reiterate that we will not enter into delaying processes that postpone freedom and a solution to the chaos that is plaguing our country," Guaidó said, alluding to previous talks that Maduro was widely seen to have exploited to remain in power.
Guaidó´s mantra since declaring a public oath as interim president on 23 January has been to end Maduro´s "usurpation", establish a transition government and convene free elections. Critics are warning of the possibility of reversing the sequence, with elections preceding Maduro´s departure, possibly in exchange for a lifting of US sanctions.
The US-backed opposition has repeatedly tried to oust Maduro over the past four months. On 23 January, Maduro was supposed to have departed "within hours" of Guaidó´s declaration of an interim presidency. A 23 February opposition campaign to bring in humanitarian aid – and crack the military´s support for Maduro – was a high-profile flop. And a 30 April effort to galvanize the military to overthrow Maduro quickly petered out and triggered a purge in the barracks. Throughout this period, Washington has stepped up financial and oil sanctions to try to pressure Maduro to step down peacefully.
The Oslo talks are now perceived as a way to break a stalemate that has tipped in Maduro´s favor since the failed 30 April uprising led by Guaidó and his formerly jailed mentor Leopoldo López, who has since taken refuge in the Spanish diplomatic residence in Caracas.
"We announce that the representatives of the main political actors in Venezuela have decided to return to Oslo next week to continue a process facilitated by Norway," Norway´s foreign ministry said on 25 May. "We reiterate our commitment to continue supporting the search for an agreed-upon solution between the parties in Venezuela."
From Caracas, Maduro said "I appreciate the Norwegian government´s efforts to promote dialogue for peace and stability in Venezuela."
Guaidó's delegates in Oslo are Fernando Martínez Mottola, a former transportation minister under late president Carlos Andrés Perez, National Assembly second vice president Stalin González and self-described political independent Gerardo Blyde, who heads the electoral committee of the largely defunct Democratic Unity coalition called MUD. The team will receive technical advice from former national election authority (CNE) rector Vicente Díaz, according to Guaidó.
Maduro's delegation in Norway includes information minister Jorge Rodríguez, one of the Venezuelan leader's closest and most trusted aides; Miranda state governor Hector Rodríguez, and foreign minister Jorge Arreaza.
Ledezma had harsh words for Guaidó's decision to sit down with the Maduro government. "Repeating the error of engaging in a dialogue with the architects of Maduro's narco-tyranny is not only naïve, but also a crass error that could mean more deaths for Venezuela."
Four previous attempts by opposition leaders to hold a dialogue with the Maduro government divided Venezuela's opposition parties, strengthened Maduro's hold on power and defused street protests.
The talks in Norway were promoted chiefly by Martínez Mottola, who has been working quietly since January with Norwegian mediators who participated in peace talks between Colombia's government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) militant group. Those talks led to a 2016 peace agreement. In Colombia, the peace deal with the Farc is widely seen as well-intentioned but flawed.
