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Venezuela peace talks spark opposition outcry

  • : Crude oil, Oil products
  • 19/05/27

Venezuelan National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó´s decision to negotiate with the government of President Nicolas Maduro is reopening fractures in the opposition movement.

The two sides will meet this week in Oslo for a first round of face-to-face talks, following an initial mediation by the Norwegian government in early May.

The talks will take place amid sharply deteriorating economic and social conditions in the Opec country, where oil production has plummeted to around 700,000 b/d, after sinking as low as 500,000 b/d in recent weeks.

Former Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma -- exiled in Spain-- and Maria Corina Machado, two leading opposition figures, are warning Guaidó that talks are a strategic and tactical mistake that could unravel his support and cement Maduro's rule. Diego Arria, Venezuela´s influential former ambassador to the UN now exiled in the US, also questions the validity of the negotiations.

An opposition group called "Soy Venezuela" (I am Venezuela) issued a statement rejecting the talks as a repeat of the failed dialogue in the Dominican Republic in 2016-17.

Guaidó, who is recognized as Venezuela's interim president by the US and more than 50 other governments, acknowledged in a 25 May statement that his team would "explore a possible negotiated exit of the dictatorship", at the invitation of Norway.

"We reiterate that we will not enter into delaying processes that postpone freedom and a solution to the chaos that is plaguing our country," Guaidó said, alluding to previous talks that Maduro was widely seen to have exploited to remain in power.

Guaidó´s mantra since declaring a public oath as interim president on 23 January has been to end Maduro´s "usurpation", establish a transition government and convene free elections. Critics are warning of the possibility of reversing the sequence, with elections preceding Maduro´s departure, possibly in exchange for a lifting of US sanctions.

The US-backed opposition has repeatedly tried to oust Maduro over the past four months. On 23 January, Maduro was supposed to have departed "within hours" of Guaidó´s declaration of an interim presidency. A 23 February opposition campaign to bring in humanitarian aid – and crack the military´s support for Maduro – was a high-profile flop. And a 30 April effort to galvanize the military to overthrow Maduro quickly petered out and triggered a purge in the barracks. Throughout this period, Washington has stepped up financial and oil sanctions to try to pressure Maduro to step down peacefully.

The Oslo talks are now perceived as a way to break a stalemate that has tipped in Maduro´s favor since the failed 30 April uprising led by Guaidó and his formerly jailed mentor Leopoldo López, who has since taken refuge in the Spanish diplomatic residence in Caracas.

"We announce that the representatives of the main political actors in Venezuela have decided to return to Oslo next week to continue a process facilitated by Norway," Norway´s foreign ministry said on 25 May. "We reiterate our commitment to continue supporting the search for an agreed-upon solution between the parties in Venezuela."

From Caracas, Maduro said "I appreciate the Norwegian government´s efforts to promote dialogue for peace and stability in Venezuela."

Guaidó's delegates in Oslo are Fernando Martínez Mottola, a former transportation minister under late president Carlos Andrés Perez, National Assembly second vice president Stalin González and self-described political independent Gerardo Blyde, who heads the electoral committee of the largely defunct Democratic Unity coalition called MUD. The team will receive technical advice from former national election authority (CNE) rector Vicente Díaz, according to Guaidó.

Maduro's delegation in Norway includes information minister Jorge Rodríguez, one of the Venezuelan leader's closest and most trusted aides; Miranda state governor Hector Rodríguez, and foreign minister Jorge Arreaza.

Ledezma had harsh words for Guaidó's decision to sit down with the Maduro government. "Repeating the error of engaging in a dialogue with the architects of Maduro's narco-tyranny is not only naïve, but also a crass error that could mean more deaths for Venezuela."

Four previous attempts by opposition leaders to hold a dialogue with the Maduro government divided Venezuela's opposition parties, strengthened Maduro's hold on power and defused street protests.

The talks in Norway were promoted chiefly by Martínez Mottola, who has been working quietly since January with Norwegian mediators who participated in peace talks between Colombia's government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) militant group. Those talks led to a 2016 peace agreement. In Colombia, the peace deal with the Farc is widely seen as well-intentioned but flawed.


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25/04/04

WTI crude falls near 4-year low on trade war: Update

WTI crude falls near 4-year low on trade war: Update

Adds end of day changes to stock markets, WTI, Treasuries Calgary, 4 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark WTI fell by more than 7pc after China retaliated against the US' latest tariff action, while a selloff in global equity markets deepened. May Nymex WTI fell by $4.96/bl to $61.99/bl, the lowest since 26 April 2021, and is down by $9.72/bl over the most recent two days. Turmoil also continued for a second day in equity markets with the S&P 500 down by 6pc, the Nasdaq down by 5.8pc and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 5.5pc from the day prior, which saw similiar losses, wiping out nearly a year of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Trillions of dollars in value were wiped out. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to end the day just above 4pc, its lowest since October, as Treasury prices rallied as investors sought safe haven in the dollar-denominated notes. Treasury yields and prices move counter to each other. The equity selloff persisted on mounting fears of a recession after US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of global trading partners for imports into the US. China hit back on Friday with a 34pc tariff of its own against the US from 10 April, driving away any hope by investors for a rebound after a selloff the day before. WTI fell by as much as 9pc during Friday's session after China's retaliation, bottoming out at $60.45/bl. The gloomy economic outlook overshadowed a strong job report that showed the US added a more-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month just as the new US administration began mass federal firings and announced tariffs on trading partners. The IMF say tariffs represent a "significant risk" to the global outlook while US-based bank Goldman Sachs said Friday it has cut its oil demand growth estimate for this year to 600,000 b/d from 900,000 b/d, based on its economists' new view of economic growth. Adding price pressure this week has also been the unexpected plans by eight Opec+ members to unwind production cuts faster , upping output in May by 411,000 b/d. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell


25/04/04
25/04/04

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide


25/04/04
25/04/04

Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide

Washington, 4 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump held out prospects of a negotiated reduction in high tariffs targeting key US trading partners while insisting that import taxes are here to say. Trump via his social media platform said today he spoke with Vietnam Communist Party leader To Lam, who promised to cut their tariffs to zero on US products. Under the plan Trump unveiled on 2 April, US imports from Vietnam will be subject to a 46pc tariff. Trump late Thursday told reporters that a deal on tariffs is possible "if somebody said that we're going to give you something that's so phenomenal." He mentioned a possible deal with China over the sale of social platform TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance. "We have a situation with Tiktok where China will probably say, we'll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariff?", Trump said. The Trump administration is forcing ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US company, but Beijing must approve the sale. "The tariffs give us great power to negotiate," Trump said. But China's commerce ministry today unveiled a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, and vowed that no exemptions will be granted, unlike in its previous round of tit-for-tat tariffs on US commodities. Trump on 2 April announced a 10pc baseline tax on all foreign imports starting on 5 April, while many major US trading partners would be subject to an even higher tax beginning on 9 April. Imports from the EU would be subject to a 20pc tariff beginning on 9 April and imports from China subject to a 34pc tariff in addition to the previously imposed 20pc tariffs. "CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!", Trump said on social media after the announcement from Beijing. Trump's executive order exempted energy commodities and many critical minerals from new tariffs, as well as trade already covered under the US Mexico Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). But oil and stock markets continued to slide today as economists and investors concluded that the US tariffs and potential foreign counter-measures would lead to a protracted trade war and reduce economic growth globally. The latest tariffs are likely to cut global growth rates by 0.5 percentage points and reduce US GDP growth by 1pc in 2025-26, analysts with investment bank Standard Chartered said in a note to clients today. Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell, speaking at a conference in Arlington, Virginia, today, warned that the latest bout of tariffs will lead to "higher inflation and slower growth." IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva issued a similar warning on Thursday evening. Trump retorted via his social media platform that "This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates." What's next? Despite touting possible deals to avoid high tariffs, Trump also said today that investors planning to move manufacturing to the US should expect no changes in his tariff policies. Trump's cabinet also struggled to articulate what comes next, with commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying that Trump would not lift the tariffs announced this week, while treasury secretary Scott Bessent said deals over tariff levels were possible. Secretary of state Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters on a trip to Brussels, Belgium, said that "it's not fair to say that the economies are crashing — markets are crashing because markets are based on the stock value of companies who today are embedded in modes of production that are bad for the US. "The markets will adjust business around the world, including in trade," Rubio said. "They just need to know what the rules are." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products


25/04/04
25/04/04

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products

London, 4 April (Argus) — The UK government has included refined oil products from the US in a list of goods that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. The government said it was considering "potential tariff measures on US goods, should this be deemed necessary" in response to a 10pc US import tariff on UK goods and services — excluding energy — due to take effect on 5 April. The consultation will last until 1 May. Light oils, gasoils, jet fuel, fuel oils, lubricants and bitumen all feature in the list of products possibly subject to retaliatory tariffs. The UK could be particularly exposed to any tariff impact on US middle distillate imports in the event of retaliation. The UK sourced over a quarter of its 14.37mn t of 10ppm diesel and gasoil from the US last year, according to Vortexa, while 3pc of its 10.15mn t of jet and kerosine imports were sourced from the US. It is not clear what tariff rate the UK is targeting in its potential retaliation. For other oil products, any potential import tariff impact would become more muted as US refined product imports become less significant. The UK received just 6pc of its 1.92mn t total fuel oil imports from the US last year, while the UK was the fourth largest gasoline supplier to the US and received none of the product from its trade partner. European refined product values have collapsed as a result of the escalating trade war which saw China retaliate today against the US' latest tariff action. Eurobob non-oxy gasoline barge prices dropped by 4pc to $700.75/t on 3 April at a time when trading activity typically picks up ahead of the US summer driving season. Indicated non-oxy barge values were set to drop further in the trading session today. The EU is similarly preparing countermeasures against US import tariffs, which Washington set at 20pc from 9 April in addition to existing rates. Ice gasoil futures had dropped by 10pc since President Trump announced the new tariff regime on 2 April to $615.75/t by the close today. Ice gasoil futures are used as the pricing basis against which diesel, gasoil and jet fuel grades are assessed in the European middle distillates markets. European refined products market participants have pointed to a darker global economic outlook triggered by the US import tariffs as the driving force behind the drop-off in European product values. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

WTI crude falls to 4-year low on escalating trade war


25/04/04
25/04/04

WTI crude falls to 4-year low on escalating trade war

Calgary, 4 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark WTI fell by as much as 9pc this morning after China retaliated to the US' latest tariff action, while a selloff in global equity markets deepened. May Nymex WTI traded as low as $60.81/bl Friday morning, a more than $6/bl tumble from the settled price in the session before when it gave up $4.76/bl. Prompt month WTI has not been this low since 13 April 2021 when it settled at $60.18/bl. Prices across commodities and equities are down sharply after China on Friday said it will impose a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, a retaliation for new tariffs launched by US president Donald Trump on 2 April . China faces a 34pc import tariff from 9 April, on top of the 20pc tariffs Trump has imposed over the past two months. The prompt-month WTI contract has given up more than $10/bl, or 17pc, in the two days since Trump announced that dozens of countries would be subject to "reciprocal" tariffs, prompting serious concerns over lower global economic growth and a higher chance of a recession. The IMF say tariffs represent a "significant risk" to the global outlook while US-based bank Goldman Sachs said Friday it has cut its oil demand growth estimate for this year to 600,000 b/d from 900,000 b/d, based on its economists' new view of economic growth. Adding price pressure this week has also been the unexpected plans by eight Opec+ members to unwind production cuts faster , upping output in May by 411,000 b/d. Turmoil continued for the second-straight day in equity markets, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq all down between 3-5pc so far. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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