原油
概要
アーガスの原油価格は、1970年の開始以来、世界の原油市場において確固たる地位を築いてきました。私たちは、市場に最も適した透明性のある手法を用いて取引状況を報告しています。
私たちの価格は、商業契約、公的な販売価格、社内移転価格、税制計算、さらには政府や上流、中流、下流の石油産業のあらゆる分野で使用される経済モデルに採用されています。
現在、米国産原油は世界中で需要が高まり、米国湾岸ではパイプラインと海上輸送市場が交わる地点が、世界の原油価格形成の中心となっています。アーガスが評価するArgus WTI MidlandやArgus WTI Houstonは、20年以上にわたり米国産原油の現物基準価格として、デリバティブ市場の決済指数としても使用されています。
アーガスは、豊富で信頼性の高い深い情報を提供することにより、世界の原油市場に貢献しています。
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US shale M&A faces headwinds on oil price rout
US shale M&A faces headwinds on oil price rout
New York, 12 May (Argus) — Dealmaking in the US shale patch, which had been on a roller-coaster ride in the past few years, is at risk of grinding to a halt as a result of an oil price slump. Just as a growing number of producers are unveiling plans to cut spending and slow activity as crude prices teeter around levels needed to profitably drill wells, prospects for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the shale patch are also souring. That marks a departure from the start of 2025 , when dealmakers were expecting a bumper year with recent acquirers looking to offload non-core assets and private equity gearing up to make a return after raising new funds. April brought five deals with a combined value of $2.3bn, bringing the year-to-date total for M&A activity in the US upstream space to $19.2bn, consultancy Enverus says. That was down by 60pc from a year earlier, when the latest round of consolidation was in full sway. "We're just hearing over and over again, across the board, that companies are overwhelmingly sitting on their hands," law firm Sidley partner Stephen Boone says. Recent deals include natural gas giant EQT buying the upstream and midstream assets of privately held Olympus Energy for $1.8bn . Gas is increasingly likely to dominate dealmaking going forward, as not only has the commodity fared better than oil on a relative basis, but investors are likely to be drawn by the US LNG boom and rapid growth of gas-fired power generation demand to meet the energy needs of data centres required for artificial intelligence . "The trouble is, there aren't enough potential gas deals to make up for a drop in oil asset activity, which we do anticipate is going to fall off a cliff," Enverus principal analyst Andrew Dittmar says. Aside from the trade tariff-induced market volatility that has sent crude prices tumbling to four-year lows, a lack of high-quality targets on the oil side also suggests deals will be few and far between this year. Most publicly-held operators will be focused on protecting their bottom line as they remain focused on shareholder returns rather than growth, and might well be reluctant to take on debt to fund deals. And private equity may prefer to bide its time. "That group is likely looking for some sign of a bottom on crude before jumping in, rather than trying to catch a falling knife of asset values," Dittmar says. That is not to say that deals have completely dried up, with Permian Resources agreeing this week to snap up assets in the New Mexico part of the top US shale play from APA for $608mn. But Diamondback Energy, a top Permian producer which has played an active role in the most recent round of M&A, might sum up the view of many with its plan to remain on the sidelines for the time being. Too much noise "We're in the period right now where there's so much noise and volatility that not a lot gets done," Diamondback's president, Kaes Van't Hof, says. "Anything that we would look at would have to be extremely cheap, and I just don't think we're there yet today." Even if some relief comes on the tariff front and the economy avoids a recession, it will take time for deals to pick up again, and that could push a resurgence in dealmaking well into 2026. The fact that public operators have spent the years since the pandemic on repairing balance sheets and focusing on investor payouts might also count against any uptick in transactions anytime soon. "That's actually going to keep M&A down, because now that we see the downturn, we have significantly less distressed companies out there that will be forced to sell, and we have more and more companies that think they are better situated to just ride it out," Sidley's Boone says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi Aramco cuts dividend after fall in 1Q profit
Saudi Aramco cuts dividend after fall in 1Q profit
Dubai, 12 May (Argus) — State-controlled Saudi Aramco has announced a sharp cut to its quarterly dividend after reporting a 5pc year-on-year decline in profit for the first three months of 2025. The company's profit fell to $26.01bn in January-March from $27.3bn in the same period last year after lower oil prices squeezed revenues. Aramco said its bottom line was also hit by higher operating costs. The company said it sold its crude for an average $76.30/bl in January-March, down from $83/bl the first quarter of 2024. "Global trade dynamics affected energy markets in the first quarter of 2025, with economic uncertainty impacting oil prices," Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser said. The company said its overall dividend for the quarter will be $20.61bn, down from $31bn in the corresponding period in 2024. The steep drop is due to the performance-linked element of the dividend being slashed to just $219mn for the quarter, from $10.7bn a year earlier. Aramco already announced in March that it expected its dividends for the full year to fall to $85.4bn from $124.3bn in 2024. Despite the current economic uncertainty, Aramco's capital expenditure (capex) rose to $12.5bn for January-March from $10.83bn in the same period last year, although this puts investment broadly in line with the lower end of the full-year 2025 capex guidance of $52bn-58bn that the company announced in March. The aggressive capex programme will help drive growth plans for the downstream and new energies sides of Aramco's business, as well as fund the firm's strategy to maintain its maximum sustainable crude capacity at 12mn b/d and expand its gas output by 60pc by 2030 compared with 2021 levels. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India, Pakistan reach US-mediated, fragile ceasefire
India, Pakistan reach US-mediated, fragile ceasefire
Dubai, 11 May (Argus) — A US-mediated ceasefire reached on Saturday between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan is still holding, following four days of intense fighting. "After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE," US president Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday. India and Pakistan will now start negotiations on a broad set of issues at a neutral site, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on social media platform X. India's military on 7 May launched attacks against targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in retaliation for an April terrorist attack that killed dozens. But by Saturday, the two countries seemed to be edging toward all-out war, as their militaries targeted each other's bases. India's foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar confirmed the ceasefire, saying on X that "India has consistently maintained a firm and uncompromising stance against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. It will continue to do so." Pakistan "responded positively to the ceasefire proposal for regional and global peace, and its people and I hope that dialogue will now be chosen for resolution of water and Kashmir disputes," Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address. Trump also praised leaders of both countries for agreeing to halt the aggression and said he would "substantially" increase trade with them, although this was "not even discussed". Kashmir is a contested area between India and Pakistan, and the two have twice gone to a war over the region. Fear of the conflict spreading roiled global financial markets. India is the region's second-biggest oil buyer after China — importing around 4.5mn b/d last year — and a major customer for other commodities, including LNG and coal. Pakistan also imports fertilizers, coal, oil products and LNG. The escalation between the two severely limited direct trade between them. Airlines in the region as well as some Mideast Gulf carriers rerouted or cancelled flights to avoid Pakistani airspace. But the Pakistan Airports Authority said on Saturday that "Pakistan's airspace has been fully reopened for all types of flights." By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iraq edging towards compliance under Opec+ pressure
Iraq edging towards compliance under Opec+ pressure
Dubai, 9 May (Argus) — Iraq managed to produce just below its formal Opec+ crude production target in April for the second month in a row, following intense pressure from other members of the group to improve on its historically poor compliance record. But the country still has much to do to compensate for past overproduction. Over the last 16 months, Iraq has been among the Opec+ group's most prolific quota-busters, alongside Kazakhstan and, to a lesser degree, Russia. Argus estimates the country's output averaged over 130,000 b/d above its 4mn b/d target last year. This non-compliance has strained unity within Opec+ and was the driving force behind the group's recent decision to unwind production cuts at a much faster pace than originally planned. Iraq has made some progress on improving compliance this year, reducing production by around 190,000 b/d in the first four months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, according to Argus assessments. Output stood at 3.94mn b/d in April, which was more than 70,000 b/d below Baghdad's formal 4.01mn b/d quota for the month. And in March, Iraq was 20,000 b/d below its then 4mn b/d quota. But this is far from mission accomplished. Along with other overproducers, Iraq has agreed a plan to compensate for exceeding formal quotas since the start of 2024, yet it has fallen short of its commitments in that regard. April's output was almost 50,000 b/d above its 3.89mn b/d effective quota for the month, taking into account the compensation plan. Iraq attributes its compliance issues to ongoing disagreements with the semi-autonomous Kurdish region over crude production levels. The oil ministry claims it lost oversight of the Kurdish region's production since the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) was closed in March 2023. Despite the pipeline closure shutting Kurdish producers out of international export markets, Argus assesses current output in the Kurdistan region ranges between 250,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, of which considerable volumes are smuggled into Iran and Turkey at hefty discounts to market prices. An understanding between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), when implemented, would see Kurdish production average 300,000 b/d, with 185,000 b/d shipped through the ITP and the rest directed to local refineries. Peer pressure Despite the challenges, it is hard to argue that Iraq is not heading in the right direction. Pressure from the Opec Secretariat and the Opec+ alliance's de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has pushed Baghdad to take some tough decisions to rein in production, which include cutting crude exports and limiting crude intake at domestic refineries. Kpler data show Iraqi crude exports, excluding the Kurdish region, fell to 3.34mn b/d in January-April from 3.42mn b/d a year earlier, while cuts to domestic refinery runs have prompted Baghdad to increase gasoil imports to ensure it has enough fuel for power generation. Fearing revenue constraints, Iraq is trying to persuade Opec+ to increase its output quota, motivated by a previous upward revision to the UAE's target. Baghdad's budget for 2022-25 includes plans to spend $153bn/yr. But this is based on a crude price assumption of $70/bl and projected oil exports of 3.5mn b/d, both of which now look out of date. By Bachar Halabi and James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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