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Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026
Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026
London, 18 December (Argus) — Ethanol prices in Europe look to be well supported in 2026, and demand for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving product is expected to grow. This comes as the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is rolled out in more member states, and supply looks to be shortening in a market that has historically been well balanced. The Netherlands will transition to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-saving mandate under its transposition of RED III in January. This means an end to double counting of ethanol produced from advanced feedstocks toward national mandates. Germany, another major European market, is also set to remove double counting for advanced biofuels. This being the case, demand will rise for crop-based ethanol, a staple of gasoline blending in Europe, especially for material with higher GHG savings. This has coalesced in increased interest in the Argus -assessed average 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol in recent weeks, with a first spot trade made on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) trade initiation platform on 16 December. Trading on these standards is the projected approach of obligated parties in some key markets as they seek to fulfil their new, higher GHG emissions savings mandates in the most economical way possible. In the year to 1 December, Argus has assessed even higher GHG savings — minimum 90pc — crop-based ethanol at an average discount of just under €180/m³ to RED Netherlands waste-based ethanol. Since the launch of the Argus ' RED Germany waste-based ethanol assessment in June, again to 1 December, the discount for high GHG savings crop-based ethanol has averaged just over €176/m³. These spreads may narrow as the projected market dynamics unfold. Supply crunch A supply gap has opened in Europe since the signing of the UK-US trade agreement in May. EU imports of UK undenatured ethanol have since collapsed, down by around 56pc on the year in May-September according to Eurostat data. The deal saw the UK remove all import tariffs on up to 1.4bn l/yr of US ethanol, which led directly to UK producer Vivergo shutting its 416mn l/yr Saltend plant in August . The EU's imports of US undenatured ethanol are also down on the year, by nearly 13pc in May-September, based on Eurostat data, as US ethanol flows are diverted to the UK . In the Netherlands, imports have been made permanently more expensive by the government ruling in October that only undenatured ethanol would be eligible for compliance under the national annual renewable energy obligation in transport. This amendment to its EU RED III transposition package means that essentially all imports of fuel grade ethanol for use in the country will be subject to the maximum import tariff of €192/m³, and not the €102/m³ tariff for denatured ethanol. These developments supported ethanol prices near two-year highs in October, and whether they stay elevated depends on imports arriving from other suppliers like the US or Brazil. EU imports of undenatured ethanol from the UK and the US between May and September were down by 44pc, or 72,300t, on the same period in 2024. Stock levels in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) ports were low for much of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The US' production capacity of 52.4mn t/yr means it remains a likely candidate to fill the EU's supply gap, but this depends on demand in the UK and the prices buyers are willing to pay there. Alternatively, Brazil may be able to fill the void with production capacity of more than 78.1mn t/yr. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is likely to be signed soon and the terms would effectively open the arbitrage window permanently for ethanol producers in Brazil to send material to Europe. But implementation of the agreement could take several years. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix
Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix
Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japan's gasoline consumption will continue falling because of its decarbonisation drive, but the country's gasoline consumption is unlikely to reach zero as gasoline-powered cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) account for a vast majority of newly registered passenger cars. Japan's gasoline sales declined at least over 2016-24, with the exception of a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03pc in 2022, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show. The country's gasoline sales totalled 330mn bl (904,100 b/d) in 2016, falling to below 280mn bl (767,100 b/d) in 2024. The country's transport sector accounted for 19.2pc of total CO2 emissions in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, according to Japan's environment ministry. Half of the transport sector's CO2 emissions came from gasoline in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Tokyo renewed its global warming countermeasures plan in February 2025, which reiterated its target of having all new car sales be "electrified vehicles" by 2035 and to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions through the vehicle lifecycle by 2050, in efforts to abate emissions. But these "electrified vehicles" do not only refer to fully electric-powered EVs nor fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) but also include gasoline-consuming HEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This means that Japanese passenger car owners will likely remain dependent on gasoline, even as gasoline consumption declines, given that Japan's preference for hybrids is likely to sustain its momentum for the foreseeable future. The country's gasoline requirement will fall by 2.4pc to 260mn bl (712,300 b/d) in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year, compared with the 2025-26 level, based on Japan's trade and industry ministry Meti's outlook. This downtrend is expected to continue by declines of 2.1-2.5 pc/yr at least until 2029-30, largely because of higher fuel efficiency and wider use of HEVs, Meti said. The number of newly registered passenger cars, including imported cars, totalled slightly below 2.4mn units over January-November 2025, data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) show. Out of this total, gasoline-consuming HEVs accounted for 60pc, and gasoline cars hold a 32pc share. Gasoline-powered cars and HEVs have jointly accounted for around 90pc at least since 2020. The share of HEVs in newly registered cars has also grown consistently every year, from 37.1pc in 2020 to 61.1pc in 2024, mostly replacing the share of gasoline cars, while the share of EVs has stalled at 0.6-1.7pc of the total of registered units every year over the same period, data from the JADA show. "The hybrid trend is likely to remain strong going forward. Compared with the time when it seemed the global shift to EVs would happen decisively and rapidly, the momentum now appears to have slowed somewhat," Japan's trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said at an interview with reporters, including Argus , in October. The shift towards EVs has not been as strong as expected, which could have benefited gasoline car makers. But US tariffs on Japanese automobiles likely eroded the profitability of Japanese automakers, with 15pc of their domestic car output exported to the US in 2024, according to Meti. The US tariff rate was lowered to 15pc from 27.5pc in September, but is still far higher than 2.5pc, the rate before US president Donald Trump's additional 25pc automobile tariff took effect in April. To support Japanese automakers given the challenging tariff environment, Tokyo could freeze its environmental performance tax — a levy of 0-3pc — imposed on car owners at the point of acquisition depending on automobile features, such as fuel efficiency. This move could pave the way for gasoline-powered vehicles to regain momentum or pose obstacles to the expansion of EV cars' market share in the coming years. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels
Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels
London, 17 December (Argus) — A change in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is pushing the Netherlands, a key renewable fuel ticket market in Europe, to pivot from compliance based on energy share to greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, and should benefit fuels with higher emission savings. The Netherlands will switch to GHG-based ERE tickets on 1 January 2026. The mandate will apply retroactively if the legislation is passed beyond that date. The move more closely aligns Dutch compliance with Germany's THG quota and accelerates a broader shift to reward fuels with high greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, as well as RED Annex IX Part A feedstock status, positioning advanced Fame, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and biomethane as front-runners. RED III's overall 2030 target gives EU member states the option to reduce their GHGs by 14.5pc, or to have a 29pc renewable energy share in their overall fuel mix. This is a significant step-up from RED II, which only required states to have 14pc renewable energy in their mix by 2030. Most major states incentivise the uptake of RED targets through the use of renewable fuel ticket systems. Tickets are used by companies supplying liquid or gaseous fossil fuels in the country and are obligated to pay excise duty or energy tax on fuels. They can be traded to meet obligations and are primarily generated via the blending of renewable fuels into fossil fuels, with additional sources of tickets including electricity used to charge e-vehicles. The Dutch change will benefit fuels with higher emissions savings and move away from a more simplistic approach where one HBE ticket is equal to 1 GJ of energy use, with multipliers available based on feedstock type. The current four HBE categories will expand to 16 types of ERE tickets , defined by transport sector — land, inland waterways and maritime — as well as feedstock. An HBE-to-ERE ratio of 1:46, as per the Dutch Emissions Authority's (NEa) guidance, has already begun to guide transitional pricing. All 2025 HBEs must be submitted by 30 April, after which any non-redeemed HBEs will be converted into EREs, subject to a legal cap on the amount that can be carried from year to year. Premiums for RED Annex IX Part A fuels should grow as demand for corresponding ERE-Gs does the same. But ERE-B values — comprising fuels from RED Annex IX Part B feedstocks — will be affected by a mismatch between RED III vs FuelEU Maritime rules . Shipping mismatch Under FuelEU, a separate legislation from RED III, Part B fuels remain eligible, whereas the domestic transposition of RED III means EREs count the same as using fossil fuel for only the maritime obligation. Shipping vessels are likely to either bunker elsewhere, or opt for Part A fuels that can meet both mandates. Maritime suppliers can source up to 0.9pc of their mix from road and inland waterways, preserving a narrow role for Part B fuels via cross-sector ERE flows. But EREs from shipping cannot be used by land suppliers. Aviation fuel blending will no longer generate Dutch tickets, removing a source of Part B tickets, as the bio-component of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has mostly been produced from used cooking oil. Overall, liquidity in the Netherlands will fragment by sector — LREs for land, BREs for inland shipping and ZREs for maritime shipping — all taking a Dutch acronym. Across the EU, GHG-based transport fuel mandates with tight feedstock caps should tighten supply of Part A fuels and renewable fuels from non-biological origin (RFNBOs), while remaining energy-based systems may lean on conventional and Part B biofuels. The Dutch-German axis, as the largest GHG-based ticket markets, may increasingly anchor to Part A fuel tickets. Advanced biofuel suppliers will be monitoring which market provides better ticket value for their fuel at a given time. France also plans to replace its energy-based TIRUERT tickets with GHG-based IRICCs in 2027 . Outside the RED III remit, the UK is consulting on whether to follow suit as it updates its RTFO scheme; consultation updates are expected in early 2026, and any resulting changes are expected in 2027. By Madeleine Jenkins Fuel ticket systems in Europe GHG-based renewable fuel ticket systems Germany – THG (€/t CO₂e) Austria - THG (€/t CO₂e) Netherlands – ERE (€/kg CO₂e) Energy-based renewable fuel ticket systems Belgium – HEE (€/megajoule) Ireland – RTFO (€/megajoule) Italy – CIC (€/10 Gcal) France - TIRUERT (€/m3, €/MWh) Spain – CCRs (€/toe) Portugal – TbD (€/toe) Volumetric-based renewable fuel ticket systems UK – RTFO (£/litre) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor
EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor
Singapore, 17 December (Argus) — Hong Kong-based biofuels producer EcoCeres has exported the first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) volumes produced at its new hydrotreated biofuels plant in Johor, Malaysia, according to a company LinkedIn post and company sources. EcoCeres exported 10,000t of SAF last week, a company source said. The cargo was purchased by Mitsui Energy Trading Singapore (Mets), a subsidiary of Mitsui, and was loaded on a vessel that sailed from Tanjung Langsat and is bound for Europe, EcoCeres said in its LinkedIn post. The Medium Range vessel Stolt Glory loaded 10,000t of SAF from Tanjung Langsat on 5 December, and is due to reach Rotterdam in mid-January, according to Kpler data. But another company source declined to confirm if this was EcoCeres' cargo. The biofuels producer previously produced its first on-specification SAF volumes at Johor in October . The plant, which can produce a maximum of 420,000 t/year of SAF and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), is now running at full rates, a company source said. The Argus fob ARA SAF price fell to nearly four-month lows of $2,247/t on 3 December, but has since risen slightly to $2,281/t as of 16 December. The decline was likely on the back of a lack of urgency among EU suppliers to fulfill mandates at the start of the new obligation year, although some volumes were traded this week , possibly because buyers were locking in deals in advance. EcoCeres also operates another 350,000 t/yr SAF and HVO plant in Jiangsu, China. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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