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Latest fertilizer news
25/02/02

Trump tariffs to hit North American energy trade

Trump tariffs to hit North American energy trade

Washington, 2 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is set to disrupt the integrated North American energy market with tariffs of 10pc on Canadian energy imports and 25pc on Mexico-sourced energy commodities, effective on 4 February. Trump on Saturday issued executive orders that would impose taxes of 25pc on all imports from Mexico and 25pc on all non-energy imports from Canada, effective on 4 February. Most energy commodities imported from Canada would be subject to a lower, 10pc tariff. Imported goods in transit before 12:01am ET on 1 February would not be subject to those levies. The Canada energy exemption applies to "crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water and critical minerals". Trump and the White House did not explain why he made a slight concession on the Canadian energy commodities. The US-Canada energy trade is particularly vulnerable to tariffs, for both sides. More than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Conversely, many refineries in the US midcontinent have no practical alternative to the Canadian crude. Industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Saturday that it would "continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation's energy advantage and support American jobs". Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as on China, by declaring a "national emergency" related to alleged inability of those countries to stem the flow of migrants and illegal drug fentanyl to the US. The White House in previous decades has used emergency declarations to impose sanctions against foreign countries, and US courts have stayed away from challenging the executive branch on such declarations and their economic applications. The choice of an emergency declaration also is meant to prevent the US Congress, which retains primary authority over US international trade, from intervening legislatively to remove tariffs. Congressional Republicans, at any rate, quickly hailed Trump's decision. By contrast, Democratic lawmakers and state officials denounced the tariffs and cited inflationary effects of the import taxes. Tit for tat Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday that his country's energy exports to the US would factor in with other retaliatory measures, possibly in the form of export taxes. "There are a number of different industries and regions of the country that can have greater leverage over the US," Trudeau said. "One thinks of the oil industry for example." Alberta premier Danielle Smith said on Saturday that she would oppose efforts to ban or to tax exports to the US. Trudeau said he would hold consultations with regional and business leaders before taking any counter-measures. But he added, "no one part of the country should be carrying a heavier burden than another." Trudeau said that Canada would apply a 25pc import tax on C$30bn ($21bn) worth of imports from the US on 4 February, followed by a 25pc tariff on an additional C$125bn worth of imports on 25 February. Denouncing Trump's punitive tariffs and his frequent derogatory comments about the US' northern neighbor, Trudeau, in comments directed at a US audience, said: "From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you." Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum likewise criticized Trump's action, characterizing as "slander" the text of his executive orders, which alleged that Mexico's government was an instrument of the country's drug cartels. But Mexico did not unveil specific countermeasures against Trump's tariffs. "I instruct the secretary of economy to implement Plan B, which we have been working on, including tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's interests," Sheinbaum said on Saturday. Trump's executive orders call for raising US tariffs if Canada and Mexico retaliate. Effects to be felt across the economy The North American energy industry is an obvious casualty of Trump's trade war. But its effects will be felt in automobile manufacturing, agriculture, steel, aluminum, potash and every other sector of the economy in all three countries. Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets. The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term. Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free-flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said. North American steel trading costs could rise by as much at $5.3bn across the three nations, since Mexico and Canada are expected to issue reciprocal tariffs against the US, as it did when Trump issued tariffs in his first term. The tariffs could also disrupt US corn and soybean sales, since China and Mexico account for 48pc of US corn exports and 61pc of US soybean exports since 2019, according to US Department of Agriculture data. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Latest fertilizer news

Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico to include oil: Update


25/01/31
Latest fertilizer news
25/01/31

Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico to include oil: Update

Updates with comments from Trump, plan for 10pc crude tariff. Washington, 31 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump said late Friday he will proceed with plans to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on 1 February, with crude imports likely to be taxed at a lower 10pc rate. Trump separately plans to impose tariffs on imports from China on 1 February. Asked if his Canada tariffs would include crude imports, Trump said, "I'm probably going to reduce the tariff a little bit on that," he told reporters at the White House. "We think we're going to bring it down to 10pc." Trump, who previously tied tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China to their alleged inability to stem the flow of drugs and migrants into the US, today insisted that the tariffs he plans to impose on Saturday in fact have a strictly economic rationale and are non-negotiable. The tariffs expected on Saturday "are not a negotiating tool", Trump said. "No, it's pure economic … we have big deficits with all three of them." Trump, in a wide ranging gaggle with reporters, separately mentioned that he would impose tariffs on imported chips and oil and natural gas. "That'll happen fairly soon, I think around 18 February," he said. It was not clear from his remarks if he meant that all oil and gas imports into the US would be taxed, or if he referred to supply only from Canada and Mexico. Trump said he would also raise tariffs on imported steel, aluminium and eventually copper as well. Trump brushed away criticism of potential negative impacts from his tariffs. "You will see the power of the tariff," Trump said. "The tariff is good, and nobody can compete with us, because we have by far the biggest piggy bank." The looming face-off on tariffs has unnerved US oil producers and refiners, which are warning of severe impacts to the integrated North American energy markets if taxes are imposed on flows from Canada and Mexico. Industry trade group the American Petroleum Institute has lobbied the administration to exclude crude from the planned tariffs. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau reiterated today that Ottawa would retaliate against US tariffs. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum also said her country has prepared responses to US tariffs . Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Canadian producers have much less flexibility, as more than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Canadian crude that flows through the US for export from Gulf coast ports would be exempt from tariffs under current trade rules, providing another potential outlet for Alberta producers — unless Trump's potential executive action on Canada tariffs eliminates that loophole. Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets. New York Harbor spot market gasoline prices are around $2/USG, meaning a 25pc tariff on Canadian imports could up that price by as much as 50¢/USG. This could prompt buyers in New England or other US east coast markets to look to other supply options. Canadian refiners could also start sending their product to west Africa or Latin America. US refiner Valero said that the tariffs could cause a 10pc cut in refinery runs depending on how the tariffs are implemented and how long they last. Gas, petchems, steel and ags threatened The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term. The US is a net gas importer from Canada, with gross imports of 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The US' Canadian imports far exceeded the 2.63 Bcf/d it delivered across its northern border over the same period, EIA data show. Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said. North American steel trading costs could rise by as much at $5.3bn across the three nations, since Mexico and Canada are expected to issue reciprocal tariffs against the US, as it did when Trump issued tariffs in his first term. The tariffs could also disrupt US corn and soybean sales , since China and Mexico account for 48pc of US corn exports and 61pc of US soybean exports since 2019, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Latest fertilizer news

Trump tariffs to hit Canada, Mexico, China on 1 Feb


25/01/31
Latest fertilizer news
25/01/31

Trump tariffs to hit Canada, Mexico, China on 1 Feb

Washington, 31 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump will proceed with plans to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10pc on imports from China on 1 February, the White House said today. The White House pushed back on reports that the tariffs would be delayed and declined to confirm whether Trump made a decision on whether to exclude Canadian and Mexican crude from the tariffs. "Those tariffs will be for public consumption in about 24 hours tomorrow, so you can read them then," the White House said. The looming face-off on tariffs has unnerved US oil producers and refiners, which are warning of severe impacts to the integrated North American energy markets if taxes are imposed on flows from Canada and Mexico. Industry trade group the American Petroleum Institute has lobbied the administration to exclude crude from the planned tariffs. Trump on Thursday acknowledged a debate over the application of tariffs to oil but said he had yet to make a decision on exemptions. The White House dismissed concerns about potential inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs. "Americans who are concerned about increased prices should look at what President Trump did in his first term," it said. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau reiterated today that Ottawa would retaliate against US tariffs. Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Canadian producers have much less flexibility, as more than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Canadian crude that flows through the US for export from Gulf coast ports would be exempt from tariffs under current trade rules, providing another potential outlet for Alberta producers — unless Trump's potential executive action on Canada tariffs eliminates that loophole. Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets. New York Harbor spot market gasoline prices are around $2/USG, meaning a 25pc tariff on Canadian imports could up that price by as much as 50¢/USG. This could prompt buyers in New England or other US east coast markets to look to other supply options. Canadian refiners could also start sending their product to west Africa or Latin America. US refiner Valero said that the tariffs could cause a 10pc cut in refinery runs depending on how the tariffs are implemented and how long they last. The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term. The US is a net gas importer from Canada, with gross imports of 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The US' Canadian imports far exceeded the 2.63 Bcf/d it delivered across its northern border over the same period, EIA data show. Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Study calls for e-fuels bunker subsidies, GHG tax


25/01/30
Latest fertilizer news
25/01/30

Study calls for e-fuels bunker subsidies, GHG tax

New York, 30 January (Argus) — E-fuel subsidies and a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions tax is needed for e-fuels to compete as a bunkering fuel before 2044, said a study by maritime consultancy University Maritime Advisory Services (Umas) and the UCL Energy Institute. The study found that adding a multiplier of the GHG intensity credit given to e-fuels could help to make e-fuel use financially competitive, but it would have to be set at high levels at the start. Using a multiplier of two, where one ship running on zero emissions e-fuel could generate credits to offset three other similar ships operating on conventional fossil fuels, was not able to make e-fuels more competitive before 2041. The multiplier would have to be set initially at 15 in 2030, falling to 10 by 2035, to enable the competitiveness of e-fuels, concludes the study. Additionally, levying a GHG tax or fee of $150-$300/t of CO2-equivalent would also make e-fuels more competitive. A tax of $30-$120/t CO2e is close to the aggregate level of subsidies, and would not create a sustained promotion of e-fuels. Under the current marine fuel standards, a combination of fossil fuels, including LNG, biofuels and carbon capture and storage systems would be most competitive up until 2036. After, blue ammonia dual fuel ships would be the lowest-cost solution until 2044. Ships that were more competitive from 2027-2035 would have at least 25pc higher operating cost from 2040 onwards. Thus, if ship owners order newbuild vessels to maximize short-term competitiveness, the sector is at a "major risk of technology lock-in" and will not be as cost-effective for reaching net zero by 2050. The study models a 2027-build, 14,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit container ship. The vessel sails between Asia and Latin America using different marine fuels such as bio-methanol, e-methanol, LNG, bio-LNG, e-LNG, bio-marine gasoil (MGO), e-MGO and very low-sulphur fuel oil. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil biofuels venture to add complex in Alagoas


25/01/28
Latest fertilizer news
25/01/28

Brazil biofuels venture to add complex in Alagoas

Sao Paulo, 28 January (Argus) — Brazilian advanced biofuels firm GranBio, biofuels producer Impacto Bioenergia and two sugarcane plant operators will build a biofuels complex in northeastern Alagoas state, the companies said on Monday. The biorefinery project, named Exygen I, will cost an estimated R1.5bn ($253mn) and produce carbon neutral ethanol, biomethane and biofertilizers. It will have production capacity of 160mn l/yr (2,760 b/d) by 2026 and use sugarcane byproducts as feedstock, according to GranBio. Exygen I's estimated biomethane production capacity will be 50mn m³/yr. The complex will produce the renewable gas from vinasse, a by-product of sugarcane processing. Future investments would include increasing Exygen I's storage capacity and biogas distribution. But the initial storage and biogas distribution capacities were not disclosed. The project's next step includes producing biogenic CO2 — made from organic matter decomposition — biofertilizers and e-methanol, used in marine fuels. The project is a joint effort between GranBio, Impacto Bioenergia, Alagoas-based producing unit Caete and sugar and ethanol firm Central Açucareira Santo Antonio. Brazil's fuels of the future law , approved in October, increased incentives for the country's biofuels market. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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