Potash
Overview
The potash market has been disrupted from its traditional trade flows and typically slow-moving price cycles, affected by new entrants, new mines, military conflicts and political tensions in countries that either produce or consume some of the largest quantities of potash in the world. The need for accurate insight and data is more acute than ever.
Our extensive potash coverage includes MOP, SOP and NOP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the potash market and we incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise to provide potash price assessments, analysis and data that provides the full narrative.
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Latest potash news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global potash industry.
Global fertilizer affordability drops to 2½-year low
Global fertilizer affordability drops to 2½-year low
London, 24 March (Argus) — Global fertilizer affordability has dropped to its lowest in two and a half years, driven by firm phosphate and potash prices, while crop values have dipped to the lowest since 2020. Nutrient affordability fell to 0.82 points in March, the lowest since November 2022, Argus data show. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. The index has dropped owing to higher fertilizer prices for phosphates and potash, which were partly offset by a decline in urea prices. Crop prices have fallen for all major grains and oilseeds on trade tensions. Phosphate prices were supported by competing demand for limited supply. The absence of Chinese product from the global phosphates market since late 2024 has kept supply tight. Additionally, a lack of clarity surrounding China's return to the export market, while firm sulphur and sulphuric acid costs force domestic DAP/MAP prices higher, has prevented any softer sentiment in the region. Competition between India and Ethiopia has driven DAP demand east of Suez. A significant decline in stocks in India by the end of its high season forced buyers to remain in the market during the off season. This coincided with Ethiopia switching to import DAP from NPS from the third quarter of 2024, seeking over 1mn t of the product across regular tenders. Re-emerging interest from Latin America, and with China still out of the market, has allowed suppliers to raise MAP prices, while US DAP/MAP barge prices are firming again ahead of spring applications. On potash, MOP prices have been on the up this year, also driven by tight supply. Belarus' Belaruskali began major works at its fourth mine in January, which will reduce exports of white MOP by around 1mn t in the first half of 2025. In February, Uralkali announced that it will undertake maintenance in the second quarter that will cut its MOP output by around 300,000 t/yr, further cementing the stronger market sentiment. It also said it will push more product — at least 400,000t of MOP — to the domestic market in 2025. Canpotex also confirmed that it is fully committed for the first half of this year, while uncertainty over tariffs on US imports of Canadian imports also drove up sentiment. MOP prices have been particularly low compared with other key nutrients, specifically phosphate and nitrogen products. And expectations that MOP prices are likely to rise further have encouraged buyers to step into the market earlier and for larger amounts than normal as affordability remains healthy. Urea prices have fallen steadily in March, after hitting 16-month highs in mid-February. The combination of a delayed tender issuance from India, with expectations initially appearing in early February, and the restart of Iranian urea production this month — after outages since December — have weighed on sentiment following a price rise since early December. The lack of a tender in India has enabled US importers to build the line-up for the spring season, releasing pressure on buyers for March-loading cargoes. And a lack of spot import interest in urea from Australia, which appeared earlier than usual in the first quarter of last year, has yet to tighten the balance significantly east of Suez. On the other hand, crop prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans have fallen sharply in March, with the crop index — which includes global prices adjusted by output volumes — dropping to the lowest since August 2020 partly on uncertainty over trade dynamics following the imposition of trade tariffs. There is a risk that declining grain prices will weigh on demand for crop inputs. By Lili Minton, Tom Hampson, Julia Campbell and Harry Minihan Global fertilizer affordability Index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TFI applauds addition of potash as US critical mineral
TFI applauds addition of potash as US critical mineral
Houston, 21 March (Argus) — US fertilizer industry group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) applauded President Donald Trump's decision to include potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals and confirmed to its members today it is looking to have phosphate added to the list as well. Under the executive order issued Thursday, which aims to increase US production of critical minerals, the National Energy Dominance Council will receive a list of mineral production projects. Within 10 days of the order being issued, the NEDC will be expected to identify priority projects to be given the necessary permitting or approval to begin advancement. "President Trump's [executive order] will help ensure a stable and abundant supply of fertilizers. which are critical to maintaining the global competitiveness of US farmers, strengthening rural economics, and keeping food prices in check," TFI said. The Defense Production Act and federal financing tools will be used to provide supportive funding for new mining projects, and a dedicated critical minerals fund is expected to be created as well. The lions share of the US' potash supply is imported, with 98pc annually coming from other countries and 85pc of that from Canada, according to TFI data. The US in comparison is one of the top five phosphate rock producing countries in the world, where roughly 20mn short tons were produced in 2024. Most phosphate rock production in the US is located in Florida and most domestic potash production is located in New Mexico. However, in January the US Department of Energy said it would conditionally back more than $1bn in loans to Michigan Potash to finance construction of the first domestically built production facility in 60 years. Under the newly issued executive order, the Michigan Potash project could be guaranteed more definitive funding and government attention. Michigan's potash reserve is ideally located within the US' fertilizer demand center, and the project in its first phase will produce about 800,000 metric tons of potash annually, Michigan Potash chief development officer Cory Christofferson said today. "In subsequent expansion phases, we can produce 4mn t of potash or more annually." By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Modified fertilizer tariffs in effect indefinitely: TFI
Modified fertilizer tariffs in effect indefinitely: TFI
Houston, 19 March (Argus) — US fertilizer industry association The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) today told its members that there is no end date for modified tariffs on Canadian and Mexican fertilizers. The exclusions and modified tariff rates will be in effect indefinitely unless President Donald Trump decides otherwise, since no expiration date was outlined in the executive order, TFI said in an alert to is members. TFI referenced speculation throughout the fertilizer industry regarding the executive order being set to expire at the beginning of April, but specified that there has not been authorized verification from the Trump administration about the end date. The industry group advised to beware of the lack of timeline, and remain conscious of the possibility of no "guarantees" in a tariff change in the near future. Canadian and Mexican imports of fertilizer and other products deemed compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) were excluded from the 25pc tariff implemented on 4 March under an executive order from the Trump administration. In comparison, potash deemed to lack USMCA preference status will face a reduced 10pc tariff, likely driven by the significant amount of Canadian potash imported into the US annually. Market sentiment has mirrored the uncertainty of the tariffs, with potash prices rising progressively over the past two months. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Egypt’s NCIC issues tender to sell fertilizers
Egypt’s NCIC issues tender to sell fertilizers
London, 17 March (Argus) — Egyptian producer NCIC has issued a tender to sell various fertilizers for loading in April, closing on 24 March. NCIC is offering the following fertilizers: 30,000t of DAP — it sold 30,000t at $638-640/t fob in its 26 February tender 15,000t of TSP — it sold 17,000t at $487-490/t fob in its 26 February tender 10,000t of 19pc SSP — it sold 30,000t at $198-203/t fob in its 26 February tender and 20,000t at $213/t fob in its 4 March tender 12,000t of CAN27 — it sold 15,000t at $321-325/t fob in its 26 February tender 5,000t of granular urea — it offered 5,000t in its 26 February tender but was not awarded 1,500t of water-soluble SOP — it sold 1,500t at $580-590/t fob bagged, with the customer supplying the bags, in its 26 February tender The fertilizers sold in its 26 February tender were scheduled to load in March. NCIC only offered SSP for loading in April in its 4 March tender. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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