Potash

Potash demand to remain firm in 2026: Fertistream

Potash demand to remain firm in 2026: Fertistream

London, 22 January (Argus) — Global potash demand is set to remain firm this year, fertilizer trading firm Fertistream's head of global market intelligence, Milton Sato, told Argus in an interview ahead of the Argus Fertilizer Latino Americano conference in Miami next week. He also reiterated Fertistream's ambitions to grow its water-soluble fertilizer business in Latin America. Edited highlights follow: What were the key drivers for the potash market in 2025? In 2025, MOP seaborne trade expanded by 2mn t to 53mn t, driven by better affordability compared with other nutrients in terms of grains-to-fertilizer ratio across the regions, and buoyant southeast Asian palm oil production. For instance, Indonesia and Malaysia alone increased imports by 1.1mn t to 4.5mn t. The rapid pace of imports eventually put some downward pressure on standard MOP (sMOP) prices in the fourth quarter. A supporting factor was the announcement of production curtailments by Belaruskali and rumours of export limits in Russia. Brazil saw a drop in MOP imports in the fourth quarter. How do you see this trend in 2026? Based on the current landscape, Brazilian MOP demand should remain stable or even slightly higher than the 13.5mn t imported in 2025. Due to low fourth-quarter imports and strong application demand, MOP stocks were tracking on the low side entering 2026. At the same time, Brazil has yet to purchase more than 80pc of the fertilizers needed for the next soy crop. Finally, the barter ratio for MOP remains relatively better than for other nutrients. Fertistream recently introduced water-soluble fertilizers to its portfolio. Is there a place for them in Brazil or the wider Latin American market? Fertistream has already begun shipping water-soluble fertilizers to the Latin American market. We have a strong presence in the region and are now expanding our specialty offerings. The global market share of water-soluble fertilizers is increasing, and the region has strong potential, driven by changing weather patterns and growing demand for fertilizers with high purity, efficiency and precise application. We believe that our participation in this market is essential to enhancing local farmers' competitiveness by providing alternative sourcing options. We consider the Latin American market strategic for our business and have a strong ambition to further increase our footprint in the region by expanding geographies, product offerings and shipped volumes. What is the impact of the US dropping sanctions on Belarusian potash? Following up on the 13 December announcement of the US lifting sanctions on Belarusian MOP, two days later, the US Treasury rectified this decision by issuing a general licence for this trade. Assuming [Belarusian marketer] BPC can reinstate payment channels in the US, expect Belarusian MOP to resume flowing in the next 3-4 months. This is supportive for MOP prices given that BPC will now have the option to serve a key importer. Conversely, this reduces eventual downward pressure on prices in other markets. EU sanctions on Belarus remain in place, and MOP exports through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda remain blocked. Across Africa, what are the opportunities for higher-value compounds and unique formulations over the classic commodity products? Markets for higher-value compounds and water–soluble products are developing in several countries. Water-soluble fertilizers are developing in Morocco and South Africa, for instance. Kenya has specific NPK grades for its key crop — tea. These cases are limited to a few countries and niches where fertilizer demand is mature. In many African countries, the application of "classic" commodity products remains a challenge. Consumption is well below the world average and is struggling to develop due to a lack of financing, high logistics costs, and the absence of both subsidy systems and allocation mechanisms. Despite the efforts of the public and private sectors, consumption remains low. The African continent has the greatest potential for fertilizer growth, for classic and specialty products, but that growth is conditional on economic and developmental realities. In the global potash market, which markets are you most optimistic about for growth in the next 3-6 months? We see a strong pull across the board, including the US, Brazil, China, India and southeast Asia, given the relatively better MOP affordability compared with other nutrients. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.