Base metals
Overview
From vehicle lightweighting to increased demand for copper to wire our connected world, base metals are used widely in manufacturing industrial and consumer products, and demand is only going to increase. Base metals are the most connected to the futures market already so what does even more demand mean for commodity investments?
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Base metals coverage
Argus delivers price data on over 300 base metals through the LME, CME and COMEX, as well as proprietary assessments. Our market news and analysis spans copper, aluminium, nickel, lead, tin, zinc and other base metals crucial to commercial and industrial enterprises.
Track premiums in the most active trade regions and use our daily analysis to better understand the link between the physical and paper markets to better navigate futures, options and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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Highlights of Argus global base metals coverage
- Value-added exchange data tools offer a deeper level of insight to the standard exchange feed windows (calculated derived cash, global view of all exchanges on a single screen, threshold alerts).
- Full suite of non-ferrous scrap prices can be analysed to detect correlations or leading indicators for base metals prices.
- Currency and unit of measure conversions allow easy comparison of exchange data in different regions of the world to identify arbitrage opportunities.
- Base metals workspaces facilitate an holistic view of each individual market’s performance.
Latest base metals news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global base metals industry.
Japan carmakers Honda, Nissan start formal merger talks
Japan carmakers Honda, Nissan start formal merger talks
Tokyo, 23 December (Argus) — Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan said today they have officially started merger talks and are aiming to close a deal by June 2025. Fellow Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi is also considering joining the transaction. Honda and Nissan have signed an initial agreement to discuss a merger, including by setting up a joint holding company under which the current brands would operate as subsidiaries. Honda will appoint a majority of the holding company's board members including its president or representative director, Honda's president Toshihiro Mibe said on 23 December. Mitsubishi will make a final decision on whether to participate in the negotiations before the end of January 2025. A Honda representative told Argus on 18 December that the firm was exploring a possible merger with Nissan. Collaboration on the electrification of automobiles is one of the major reasons for the merger, according to Honda and Nissan. The firms agreed a strategic partnership in March to work together on electrification, studying possible areas of co-operation in developing automotive software platforms, core components relating to electric vehicles (EVs) and complementary products. Honda aims to electrify all its new cars by 2040 and is investing ¥10 trillion ($64bn) by 2030 partly to reduce battery costs, which account for around 30-40pc of the total cost of producing EVs, Mibe said in May. Honda's combined sales of EVs and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs) more than doubled to around 42,000 units in 2023, according to the company. But this only accounts for around 1pc of its total sales. Further investments on electrification by a single manufacturer are not feasible, Mibe said on 23 December. Nissan produced 3.4mn vehicles in 2023. It does not provide a precise breakdown for global EV sales, although it said in August 2023 that such sales had surpassed 1mn units since its first delivery in 2010. This is dwarfed by foreign EV competitors, including Chinese producer BYD and US manufacturer Tesla, whose sales exceeded 3mn and 1.8mn units respectively in 2023 alone. The merger is also designed to optimise facilities owned by Honda and Nissan, Mibe said. But he denied that it would lead to a reduction in production capacity or asset cuts. The companies instead aim to expand output, Mibe added, although he did not disclose a detailed plan. Nissan is struggling to make a profit, partly because of weak EV demand. The company's net profit slumped by 94pc on the year to ¥19.2bn in April-September, prompting it to cut global production capacity, including for EVs, by 20pc to around 4mn units/yr. Nissan's financial struggles will not affect its collaboration with Honda, but it needs to accelerate its financial recovery, Nissan chief executive Makoto Uchida said on 7 November. But Mibe suggested on 23 December that Nissan's financial situation could cause the proposed merger to be scrapped. Japan's trade and industry ministry (Meti) has yet to make any official comment on the merger talks. But Meti minister Yoji Muto said on 20 December that restructuring the industry would generally help increase the value of private entity and promote innovation. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Securing steady Ni ore supply the new focus
Viewpoint: Securing steady Ni ore supply the new focus
Singapore, 23 December (Argus) — Nickel ore supply security has become a main focus for investors and smelters after the delayed approval of Indonesian nickel mining work plans (RKABs) resulted in tight spot ore availability earlier in the year. Ramping up capacity and maximising profit margins have always been the priority for smelters, but the shortage of Indonesian nickel ore in some months this year turned their attention to securing ore supply instead. The lack of ore availability was largely attributed to slow RKAB approval rates and a disproportionate allocation of RKABs to companies and regions, particularly during the monsoon in May-August. Some smelters resorted to cutting production, while others opted to seek out alternative supplies. Imports of nickel ore to Indonesia were 55 times higher on the year in January-October, with the Philippines providing the bulk at 9.08mn t. Indonesia has approved a quota of 272mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) for 2024 and 247mn wmt for 2025, according to market participants. And more RKABs are expected to be approved in the coming months. Indonesia's nickel production — including nickel pig iron (NPI), mixed precipitate hydroxide (MHP) and matte — is projected to rise by 17pc on the year to 2.15mn t of nickel metal equivalent this year, and is expected to increase by 12pc to 2.4mn t in 2025, Argus estimates. The increase is largely driven by MHP and matte, while NPI growth has slowed owing to a lukewarm stainless steel sector. Indonesia-produced NPI is typically exported to China's stainless steel melt sector, whose output is projected to climb by 4.1pc on the year to 38.4mn t in 2024. But the growth rate could slow to 3.5pc given lacklustre demand in the machine building and property sectors. Indonesia has become the main global supplier of MHP and matte after a nickel price downturn forced various western mines and plants to enter care and maintenance, temporary suspensions or shutdowns. MHP and matte are the feedstocks to produce nickel sulphate, which is used in the production of nickel cathodes or batteries and subsequently electric vehicles (EVs). Nickel consumption in the Chinese EV sector is expected to remain firm at 343,000t in 2024 and 2025, while cathode output is expected to increase with new projects under way. The London Metal Exchange warehouse system has become a popular option to store the surplus cathodes. The forecast NPI, MHP and matte output of 2.15mn t and 2.4mn t of nickel metal equivalent would require 217mn wmt and 246mn wmt of nickel ore in 2024 and 2025, respectively, according to Argus data. This suggests that RKAB for 2024 and 2025 is probably more than enough to meet demand. But the unpredictability of the approval timeline, allocation of RKABs and weather conditions could disrupt ore availability, prompting smelters to adopt a more cautious stance — monitoring the progress of further RKAB approvals while actively securing new sources of nickel ore supply. Locking in supply agreements with nickel mining firms seems to have become a main priority of smelters, with collaborations increasing between Chinese investors and mining companies. Chinese battery metals and materials producer Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM) is partnering Indonesian nickel firm Merdeka Battery Material to secure ore for their high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) production. GEM has another joint HPAL project with PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI), a subsidiary of Brazilian mining firm Vale. PTVI will also supply nickel ore to a HPAL project with Chinese battery metals and materials producer Huayou Cobalt and global automaker Ford. The Indonesian government extended mineral and coal information system Simbara to the nickel and tin supply chain in in July, in an effort to increase domestic and export shipment transparency, curb illegal mining and raise state revenue. But the system's implementation could disrupt steady nickel ore supply and consequently raise production costs because only registered mining firms with RKABs are allowed to issue invoices and billings, market participants suggested. Nickel ore demand VS RKAB.pdf Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025
Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025
Houston, 20 December (Argus) — US copper prices are expected to remain volatile in 2025 because of uncertain market conditions, including Chinese demand, electric vehicle (EV) rollouts and falling borrowing costs. Following a two-year downturn prompted by China's economic slowdown in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the next active price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit an all-time record high of $5.106/lb on 21 May 2024. Expectations of increased demand in China, the prospect of looming US interest rate cuts, and projected ramped-up demand for copper in EVs and the green energy sector fueled copper price gains into the mid-year. These expectations proved partly exaggerated, leading copper to fall back to an average of $4.33/lb over the second half of 2024. US copper market participants expect those same factors, albeit to varying degrees, to retain a prominent role in determining prices for 2025. Macroeconomic uncertainties Suppliers and consumers widely expect volatility to persist in the global copper trade as broader macroeconomic factors — chiefly Chinese demand and stimulus, US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions — and delayed US EV ramp-up plans pull the market in diverging directions. President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to implement import tariffs have further complicated the picture for US participants, with likely retaliatory tariffs clouding the picture even more. Trade disagreements and tariffs would not only raise costs but also curb demand as the flow of various goods is dented, market sources said. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve policymakers on 18 December signaled they are likely to cut the target rate by only 50 basis points next year, paring back their expectations from a prior 100 basis points as inflation remains sticky. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, surged after the Fed announcement to its highest in two years. A strong dollar puts downward pressure on copper prices because it tends to weaken demand from holders of other currencies. Tariffs are also expected to spur inflation and may prompt the Fed to further slow the pace of rate cuts, or even hike rates, effectively lending support to the dollar, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies to buy into copper. The US Dollar index, DXY, surpassed 108.2 on 19 December, the highest since November 2022. Goldman Sachs has forecast that the greenback will remain strong in the near-term. Automakers slow EV transition Although the green energy transition — generally covering solar, wind, and EV markets for copper markets — is expected to contribute to US consumption of copper, automakers have signaled their interest in delaying EV deployments. Wind and solar markets are widely expected to remain growth sectors with US projects and installations scheduled to rise next year . Still, the picture for EVs, which could ultimately contribute to copper demand heavily, is murkier. EVs utilize copper in motor coils for engines, and the cabling for charging stations among other components, and each EV requires 183 lbs of copper, nearly four times more than equivalent internal combustion engine vehicles. Several automakers, including GM, Ford and Toyota, have either delayed EV plans or shifted more towards hybrids instead this year. Price outlooks diverge Market participants broadly expect the copper market to slide into a deficit by 2026, chiefly because of growing demand from the renewable sector but until then are split on the direction of prices. The CME next active month price through November averaged $4.24/lb in 2024, up from a $3.86/lb average for the same time period in 2023. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said copper prices will average $4.61/lb for 2025, forecasting upside risk from potential further stimulus while simultaneously seeing downside risk from likely US-China trade tensions. Other financial organizations have forecast copper to range from $3.97-4.99/lb in 2025. Citigroup forecast copper at $3.97/lb, Bank of America dropped its outlook to $4.28/lb while UBS was at $4.76-$4.99/lb. Most copper traders and analysts agree that 2025 will likely be a year of transition for the red metal market, buffeted by ongoing uncertainty. By Mike Hlafka Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise
Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise
London, 20 December (Argus) — Demand for platinum and iridium from the hydrogen industry will rise in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated because of delays to hydrogen project development. Demand from the hydrogen industry for platinum group metals (PGM) has increased significantly in recent years. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported a 123pc increase in demand for platinum from hydrogen applications year on year on 26 November, from a small base. The WPIC anticipates a further 32pc growth in 2025. PEM electrolysers and hydrogen fuel cells both utilise platinum and iridium, opening up a new end-market for some PGMs. Demand from hydrogen applications may offset falling autocatalyst demand from the automotive industry in the long term. Hydrogen industry demand for platinum, iridium and ruthenium will also support demand for palladium, even though palladium is not utilised in hydrogen applications. As demand for platinum from the hydrogen industry increases, palladium will increasingly be substituted for platinum in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, increasing automotive palladium demand and lifting PGM prices overall. More than $300bn in global hydrogen investments are earmarked through to 2030. Many governments seeking to reach their ambitious climate goals are investing in hydrogen, with 61 governments adopting hydrogen strategies as of 2024. "We know that all areas of the world will not shift to hydrogen in the same way as Europe, but we see technology advancing and costs falling, which gives us confidence that the hydrogen economy will be a big driver for platinum and iridium demand in the future," Heraeus Precious Metals Germany head of trading Dominik Sperzel told Argus . According to the WPIC, 11pc of global platinum demand will come from hydrogen application in 2030, totalling 900,000oz. By the late 2030s hydrogen energy production is expected to be the largest end-market for platinum, with 3.5mn oz of demand expected by 2040. "We have seen the hype over the past four to five years. Iridium prices started to increase in 2020 because of supply disruptions and on the demand side, people were excited about new technology announcements and projects entering the pipeline," Sperzel said. Johnson Matthey iridium prices increased by 285pc from the start of 1 June 2020 to 1 June 2021, reaching a peak of $6,300/troy ounce (toz). But they have since fallen by 29pc to $4,450/toz on 12 December as hydrogen demand failed to meet expectations. The development of the hydrogen economy has underperformed in recent years relative to expectations, and expected demand for PGMs has not yet materialised, according to PGM market participants. Many hydrogen projects remain unfinanced, and much of the hype has since abated. There are several challenges inhibiting the development of a widespread hydrogen economy, including the lack of existing infrastructure for hydrogen delivery. Another has been the availability of government subsidies, as significant funds have been earmarked for hydrogen investment but not yet disbursed. "Since 2022 to this year, subsidies available for green hydrogen projects have gone from $50bn to $300bn, but the funds haven't been flowing until early this year. It was only in June that the first of the European subsidies really began to be distributed to support the construction of these facilities. Now that subsidies are beginning to flow, development will accelerate quickly, driving consumer demand for fuel cell electric vehicles," World Platinum Investment Council research director Edward Sterck told Argus . The outlook for hydrogen as an energy source is improving, particularly in Europe and China, as a result of public sector investment and policy focus. The EU in April included over €100mn in grant funding for the construction of hydrogen refuelling stations across seven EU countries, including Poland, in a larger package of €424mn for zero-emission mobility. The EU in May 2024 adopted its hydrogen and gas decarbonisation package, which introduced a regulatory framework for dedicated hydrogen infrastructure. According to the Hydrogen Council, in July 2024 alone, six European hydrogen projects reached final investment decision (FID) status. Investment in hydrogen projects reaching FID globally has increased sevenfold since 2020 from 102 committed projects to 434 in 2024. "We remain positive about the project pipeline and PGM demand. The open question is if the push will happen in the next year, or take longer," Sperzel said. By Maeve Flaherty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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