Base metals
Overview
From vehicle lightweighting to increased demand for copper to wire our connected world, base metals are used widely in manufacturing industrial and consumer products, and demand is only going to increase. Base metals are the most connected to the futures market already so what does even more demand mean for commodity investments?
Argus provides base metals premiums in the most active trading regions around the world, in addition to data from the world’s metals exchanges on a real-time (additional fees apply) or 30-minute delay basis.
Base metals coverage
Argus delivers price data on over 300 base metals through the LME, CME and COMEX, as well as proprietary assessments. Our market news and analysis spans copper, aluminium, nickel, lead, tin, zinc and other base metals crucial to commercial and industrial enterprises.
Track premiums in the most active trade regions and use our daily analysis to better understand the link between the physical and paper markets to better navigate futures, options and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Investors that do take positions on the financial markets can use Argus tools to highlight arbitrage opportunities and receive alerts when prices reach upper and lower threshold limits on their contracts of interest.
Highlights of Argus global base metals coverage
- Value-added exchange data tools offer a deeper level of insight to the standard exchange feed windows (calculated derived cash, global view of all exchanges on a single screen, threshold alerts).
- Full suite of non-ferrous scrap prices can be analysed to detect correlations or leading indicators for base metals prices.
- Currency and unit of measure conversions allow easy comparison of exchange data in different regions of the world to identify arbitrage opportunities.
- Base metals workspaces facilitate an holistic view of each individual market’s performance.
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Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline
Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline
London, 19 December (Argus) — The European aluminium industry has heard some highly optimistic forecasts for prices and demand recovery in 2026 at a series of late-year industry events that started with London Metal Exchange (LME) Week in October. But that optimism rests on assumptions of a sharp recovery in demand for which there is no real evidence, and concerns are growing that the extended downturn in European manufacturing represents a more structural shift in global industrial power. Some industry analysts forecast in October that LME aluminium prices could reach $3,000/t by the end of 2025, and even threaten the $4,000/t mark at some point in 2026. The forecasts assumed a continuation of the supply tightness that has become a major driver of global aluminium markets in 2025 as Chinese output has neared its production cap of 45mn t/yr and production growth has also slowed elsewhere, as many regions focus away from capacity expansion. But the bullish price projection was also supported by expectations of a recovery in demand from manufacturing industries following a lengthy period of contraction, particularly in Europe. With demand levels for aluminium-intensive goods currently well below trend, those analysts foresee a much better demand outlook for next year. But the reality may be that the downturn in aluminium demand in Europe is more structural, and as a result there is no reason to expect a significant improvement just because it is due in an historical context. The automotive sector is a particularly potent example. After a steep fall in manufacturing rates in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe's automotive sector has yet to recover to 2019 levels. Production even fell back in 2024 by more than 6pc from the previous year on strong competition from China and lower consumer spending because of high inflation and rising interest rates. European car production fell further in the first half of 2025, by 2.6pc on the year as stricter emissions targets, high energy costs and US import tariffs hit output. Even relief in the form of falling interest rates or more affordable energy would not be enough to bring European car manufacturing back to 2019 levels. As European output has fallen, other countries have risen to take its place. Global car production grew by 3.5pc in the first half of this year, with Chinese output jumping by 12pc on the back of climbing electric vehicle (EV) sales, thanks to policy support and, crucially, rising exports. As Europe once led the world in internal combustion engine markets, so China is now leading in EVs. "The European industry sold ICE [internal combustion engine] cars all over the world, including to China, but that era is now over," executive director of clean transport think tank Transport & Environment William Todts said at the European Aluminium Summit in Brussels last month. "Fifty percent of the Chinese market has gone, and the European market is shrinking. That transformation is extremely challenging." Europe must recognise this new world order and adjust its policy goals accordingly. Much of Europe's trade and industry policy was designed for the dominant global industries the region enjoyed in the past, and new policies must be enacted to support new markets or the downturn in European manufacturing will extend further and deeper. "I'm very worried about the downturn being structural. Europe has huge energy costs and I don't see carmakers growing against the Chinese competition," chief executive of aluminium products manufacturer HAI Group Rob van Gils said in Brussels. "I don't think it's a cycle and it will be very tough in the next couple of years," he added. "We need an evergreen approach. Europe is just surviving. It is not innovating. Industry is stuck." By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices
Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices
Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia is likely to expand its mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) plant capacity further in 2026, supported by record-high cobalt prices and strong production economics, a move that could deepen nickel oversupply and weigh on prices. Current output Indonesia's MHP output is projected to reach 482,000t in nickel metal equivalent this year — almost a 50pc rise from 2024, according to Argus estimates. Argus -assessed 37pc nickel payable MHP prices have fallen by 2.6pc on the year to $127.40/metric tonne unit (mtu) so far in 2025, while Class 1 nickel prices have dipped from $17,000/t to around $15,350/t over the same period. Nickel prices will likely remain depressed in the low-$15,000s/t range in 2026 because supply expansion is outpacing demand growth. Demand has slowed as the electric vehicle (EV) market growth has cooled in recent years, with annual growth in global EV car sales slowing from 26pc in 2024 to 23pc in 2025. Nickel demand growth could also face further headwinds from increasing competition from other battery types such as nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate and high-manganese chemistries. This could increase the nickel surplus, further weighing down on overall nickel prices. Indonesia has consolidated its position as the leading global MHP supplier after most Western plants halted operations in late 2023. The country currently hosts around 10 operating MHP projects with a combined designed capacity of about 440,000 t/yr of nickel. Most projects are owned by Chinese giants Ningbo Lygend, Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), and Huayou, in collaboration with local producers Merdeka, Harita Nickel, and PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI). MHP capacity expansion More MHP projects are expected in the near-term, bolstered by elevated cobalt prices, as MHP typically contains 2-5pc of cobalt. Refineries have been seeking cobalt alternatives because of constrained supply following export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since February. Indonesia's cobalt feedstock capacity is projected to hit around 65,000 t/yr in 2026, while global cobalt supply is expected to hit 210,000t over the same period, according to Argus data. The lucrativeness of MHP in comparison with other nickel products, such as nickel pig iron (NPI), is another driver for investment. MHP production cost: $10,500–11,000/t (December estimate) Processing cost to convert MHP into nickel metal: $3,000–3,500/t Total cost for MHP to nickel metal: $13,500–14,500/t NPI to nickel metal cost: $14,000–14,500/t Additionally, cobalt by-product sales (around $2,000/t) help offset MHP production costs, effectively reducing net costs to $11,500–12,500/t, making MHP more lucrative than NPI. Outlook Concerns are mounting that rapid expansion of Indonesia's MHP capacity will further pressure on nickel prices. Argus forecasts Indonesia's MHP capacity to nearly double on the year to 862,000 t/yr in 2026, as several HPAL projects are scheduled to be commissioned in 2026. While not all capacity will translate into production, any additional output will add to an already oversupplied market, intensifying the glut. The overall nickel surplus is estimated at 212,000t in 2025 and is projected to reach 288,000t in 2026, according to Argus data. Indonesia has tightened its efforts to regulate nickel pricing and oversupply this year, reverting the validity period for RKAB mining quotas to one year. The government also suspended some nickel mines due to a lack of reclamation and post-mining guarantees, while lands were seized from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. These policy changes have yet to significantly impact nickel prices, but remain critical factors that could disrupt supply and influence the price outlook. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe
Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe
London, 17 December (Argus) — Europe's copper market heads into 2026 carrying the imprint of an extraordinary 2025, a year in which price signals, physical flows and geopolitics diverged sharply. What emerged was not a simple story of shortage or surplus, but a fractured global market in which Europe briefly found itself competing for metal with the US, while China's smelting overcapacity distorted upstream fundamentals. While European supply has stabilised, a projected tightness in 2026 promises higher premiums, particularly if underlying metal prices remain at record highs. Fractured fundamentals in 2025 Copper prices surged through 2025, with London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month values repeatedly achieving record territory above $11,000/t and briefly approaching $12,000/t in December. On the surface, the rally appeared to signal a classic supply crunch, driven by mine disruptions at assets such as Grasberg, in Indonesia, and Kamoa-Kakula, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and structurally strong demand from grids, electrification and data centres. But the deeper story was more complex. Demand growth was uneven. China's apparent consumption slowed sharply in the second half of the year as stimulus effects faded, while manufacturing activity in Europe remained weak. Yet prices continued to rise, reflecting not so much booming end-use demand as a geopolitical and logistical reshaping of supply. The decisive factor was the growing pull of copper into the US market on the threat of import tariffs on refined copper. The widening price premium on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) contract relative to the LME opened a powerful arbitrage that drew metal out of LME warehouses and, by extension, away from Europe. By late 2025, CME stocks accounted for more than half of global exchange inventories, while LME registered stocks fell below 100,000t at points — levels historically associated with acute tightness in deliverable supply. For Europe, this mattered more than headline global balances. Even as total exchange inventories rose above 700,000t worldwide, availability became tighter in non-US regions, pushing spot and term premiums sharply higher. LME-CME arbitrage: the key swing factor The LME-CME arbitrage, which is governed by several interlinked factors — relative interest rates, currency moves, logistics costs, warehouse accessibility and above all, US trade policy — is expected to remain in 2026. As long as the CME price commands a premium of several hundred dollars per tonne over the LME, the incentive to ship metal into the US persists. In 2025, that premium regularly exceeded estimated freight and financing costs, keeping the arbitrage wide open. In 2026, tariff-driven uncertainty could trigger further pre-emptive inflows into the US early in the year, sustaining tightness elsewhere — including Europe — before potentially easing later once inventories are built and global supply recovers from 2025 shocks. Conversely, a delay or dilution of tariffs could narrow the spread, allowing some metal to remain or return to LME locations. European supply and premiums: a new baseline? European spot premiums eased in September-November as the scramble for cathode outside the US eased, but as major producers have responded to 2025 events by lifting 2026 term premiums aggressively, European spot premiums also surged as sellers look to mirror the new market baseline in the spot market. Chilean supplier Codelco announced a near 40pc increase in its European premium for 2026 deliveries, taking it to the mid-$300s/t over LME, with Aurubis following with similarly high offers. The Argus assessment for copper cathode grade A cif Rotterdam rose to $210-220/t on 2 December, increasing by more than a third relative to September-November levels. Trading groups and producers surveyed by Argus indicate a reassessment of risk — producers are pricing in the possibility that Europe becomes structurally "second in line" behind the US for deliverable cathode. Whether these elevated premiums are sustainable through the whole of 2026 depends on how quickly arbitrage-driven stock movements stabilise. But even if LME stocks rebuild later in the year, the premium reset of 2025 may have established a higher floor for Europe. Bank forecasts: surplus, but not comfort Major banks mostly agree that the global copper market remains in surplus in 2026, although the size of that surplus is shrinking. Goldman Sachs projects a surplus of about 160,000t in 2026, down from roughly 500,000t in 2025, and expects prices to average $10,000-11,000/t. But the International Copper Study Group points to a possible deficit of 150,000t in 2026, keeping the market on watch. Chinese market participants are expecting non-US supply to tighten significantly as material flows in the US, but some US market participants point to an easing trend. On paper, these numbers argue against a classic shortage. But the experience of 2025 shows that regional tightness can coexist with a global surplus. For Europe, the key takeaway is that surplus metal may not be available where it is needed, when it is needed, if arbitrage and policy continue to redirect flows. In that sense, 2026 could resemble 2025 — balanced or a surplus globally, but intermittently tight in Europe. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian authorities approve Anglo, Teck mining merger
Canadian authorities approve Anglo, Teck mining merger
Sydney, 16 December (Argus) — Canadian regulators have approved the merger of UK-South African producer Anglo American and Canadian producer Teck Resources, allowing the pair to form a Canadian-based global iron ore, copper, zinc, and coking coal business. Anglo Teck — the merged firm — will spend C$4.5bn ($3.3bn) in Canada over the next five years and C$10bn over 15 years under binding Investment Canada Act commitments, Anglo American told investors on 16 December. The merged firm's short-term spending will support germanium, copper, and other critical mineral projects (see table) , as well as research and community projects. Anglo Teck will also hold its Canadian employment levels constant for an unspecified period and list itself on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Anglo American said. Anglo American and Teck Resources shareholders approved the $53bn merger on 11 December. But the deal still faces competition reviews in multiple countries, where the two firms operate. Anglo Teck will be a top five global copper producer, Teck Resources' chief executive Jonathan Price said on 9 September, when he announced the deal. Teck Resources plans to produce 415,000-465,000t of copper , 525,000-575,000t of zinc, 3,500–4,800t of molybdenum, and other metals in 2025, it said on 8 October. Anglo American also plans to produce 690,000–750,000t of copper and 57mn–61mn t of iron ore over the year. Anglo American intends to advance plans to divest from its diamond, coking coal, and nickel businesses before the deal closes, a move supported by Teck Resources. US producer Peabody Energy pulled out of a $3.8bn deal to buy Anglo American's Australian coking coal assets in August. Anglo Teck's merger approval also comes less than a month after Australian producer BHP submitted and withdrew an offer to buy Anglo American. By Avinash Govind Anglo Teck's spending commitments Commitment Value* (C$mn) Mineral Proceed with Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension 2100 - 2400 Copper Enhance critical minerals processing capacity at Teck's Trail Operations 850 Germanium and other critical minerals Develop Galore Creek and Schaft Creek copper projects 750 Copper Support Canadian critical mienral exploration and junior miners 300 Critical Minerals Maintain and enhance commitments to Indigenous governments, communities, conservation, and other initiatives 200 - Establish Global Institute for Critical Minerals Research and Innvoation 100 Critical Minerals Continue and maintain Teck's remediation and reclamation activities Copper Explore increasing copper production at Trail Operations and building a copper smelter in British Columbia Copper *Spending up to Anglo American Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.